Turkey’s Great Depression started in April

April survey data portrays an economic landscape that has become a wasteland. However, this is mostly expected, as large parts of country and economy were under lockdown during the month. There  are some forward looking indicators and political surveys which provide the first hints that Turkey may experience not a brief recession, but a great Depression after the Covid-19 outbreak. This broadcast shall focus on four variables. First, the administration  is going about normalization the wrong way. Secondly, the currency shock in progress would weaken the fundamentals of the economy. Third, insufficiency of state aid programs has caused a massive shrinkage in disposable incomes, which is likely to trigger a vicious cycle of demand deficiency. Finally, Turkey’s banks are becoming loaned-up as asset quality deteriorates.

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