Coup rumors mar Eid el-Fitr for Turkey

Turkey left behind a miserable Eid el-Fitr, the religious holidays celebrating the end of the month of fasting, Ramadan. The entire nation was under lockdown, meaning that first time in the long history of  Moslem Turks and Anatolia people could not visit their relatives or the cemeteries.  The administration announced higher transaction taxes on bank bonds, gold and FX transactions, which smacked of capital controls. Finally and most damaging for the psyche of the nation, AKP and its gargantuan media machine continued to spew out coup rumors. 

Erdogan seeks distraction from economic misery

Pro-government supporters in Turkey have recently revived talk of another coup attempt in what critics said was an effort to target opponents and distract from domestic concerns compounded by the coronavirus outbreak.

Nearly four years after a failed coup, followed by widespread purges of the military and other state institutions, the suggestion of another takeover attempt was met with skepticism by observers.

“It’s really confusing because who is there in the military to mount anything like that?” said Ahmet Evin, a political scientist and a senior fellow at the Istanbul Policy Centre think tank.

Since the attempt to remove President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in July 2016, nearly 19,500 members of the military, including many senior officers, have been dismissed in purges targeting the religious sect said to be behind the plot.

“There’s a tradition in Latin America that the army is the only institution that has its own ways and means,” said Mitat Celikpala, deputy rector at Kadir Has University in Istanbul. “However, under the current circumstances I don’t see any environment in which a coup could happen.”

Nevertheless, Mr Erdogan’s backers insisted the threat remained. “They’re still in the army, the press, the police, the bureaucracy, the municipalities and in politics,” Ersin Ramoglu, a columnist for the pro-government Sabah newspaper, said last week.

Targeting the opposition

Claims of a conspiracy to remove the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) from power have  bene tied a to the opposition, which suggests a harsher crackdown on dissent.

Mr Erdogan had accused the Republican People’s Party (CHP) – founded by Ataturk and now the largest opposition party – of “still yearning and burning for coups, tutelage and juntas”.

In the following days, a number of pro-AKP figures spoke out about a potential coup, often in violent terms.

“You say ‘We will overthrow Tayyip Erdogan, we will execute him’,” journalist Fatih Tezcan said in an online video. “How will you protect your wife, your children from us? The blood of millions will spill for a single drop of Erdogan’s blood.”

Writer Sevda Noyan sparked outrage when she appeared on television to complain that her family “could not do what we really wanted to do” during the 2016 coup attempt before going on to claim she had prepared a list of targets and could “remove” 50 people.

Murat Emir, a CHP MP for Ankara, said the conspiracy claims aimed to paint the government and its base as the targets of secularists.

“With the current government, every opposition figure who expresses the need for change is accused of hinting at a coup,” he said. “Later, certain writers and journalists bubble into a rage. These and similar claims always have one purpose – to cover the real agenda with a perception operation.

“The real danger is that while those who blacklist neighbours and plan mass murder remain unpunished, people like Sevda Noyan and Fatih Tezcan are able to find the environment and courage to openly express their twisted thoughts.”

Rumours of a takeover came after the government lost major cities such as Ankara and Istanbul to the CHP in last year’s local elections. It has also been disturbed by the popularity of opposition-run municipal aid programmes during the coronavirus pandemic.

CHP’s municipal schemes have been targeted – Mr Erdogan who said they were an attempt to establish a “parallel state” – the government has removed dozens of recently elected mayors in the Kurdish-majority south-east by linking them to terrorism.

Talk of a coup seemed to have been sparked by comments from Canan Kaftancioglu, chairwoman of the CHP in Istanbul and a leading party figure, at the end of April when she predicted a change in government “through early elections or some other way”.

Although she later clarified her remarks, they were seized on as suggesting the AKP’s removal by non-democratic means.

However, others suggest the worsening outlook for Turkey’s fragile economy under coronavirus is another factor in talk of a coup.

The International Monetary Fund has forecast that Turkey’s economy will shrink by 5 per cent this year, pushing up inflation and unemployment. According to a recent poll by center-right ANAR 75% of the people consider poor economy as their primary concern after the Covid-19 outbreak.

“Erdogan’s speculation about a potential coup is a convenient ploy to divert the public’s attention away from the economic crisis and financial mismanagement at home,” said Aykan Erdemir, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Turkey programme.

Mr Evin said: “The economic situation is absolutely miserable and, regardless of who is in power, under these circumstances conspiracy theories abound. The whole atmosphere is conducive to this kind of thing because of the situation of instability.

Erdogan hopes to accelerate  economic growth this summer by lifting corona restrictions and reviving tourism, but his plans may be stymied by a deep distrust in his administration, compelling people to delay big-ticket purchases and still shun  shopping centers and social events.

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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.