British bank Barclays issued a new report where its analysts expect the CBRT policy rate to reach 35 percent at the end of the year and 40 percent in 2024. The bank also emphasized that the risks to dollar/TL are upward if dollarization pressures develop again.
Barclays announced its dollar/TL, Euro/TL and policy rate forecasts. Stating that Turkish authorities are focusing on closing the current account deficit, Barclays FX team stated that they expect the Turkish lira to be allowed to depreciate.
Predicting that the CBRT policy rate will limit the pressure on the Turkish lira to some extent, Barclays predicted that the policy rate will be 35 percent at the end of the year and 40 percent in 2024.
Risks in Dollar/TL are on the upside
Barclays also emphasized that the risks for dollar/TL forecasts are considerable, if dollarization pressures develop again.
The bank expects dollar/TL to rise to 29 by the end of 2023, 32 in March 2024, 35 in June 2024, and 39 in September 2024.
Barclay, which put forward its end-2023 forecast for Euro/TL as 31.32, predicted that Euro would be 34.56, 38.15 and 42.90 in March, June and September 2024.
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