How Disinformation and Geopolitical Friction are Pushing Turkey and Israel to the Brink
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In the hyper-accelerated information ecosystem of 2026, where regional wars are fought as much on social media feeds as they are in the trenches, a single spark of disinformation can threaten to ignite a secondary front in an already scorched Middle East. Recently, a two-year-old video of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—speaking in a context that was assertive but ultimately diplomatic—began recirculating on X (formerly Twitter). The clip was presented by pro-Israel accounts with misleading, aggressive translations, suggesting that Ankara was preparing an imminent military strike against Israeli territory.
The speed with which this “zombie claim” infiltrated the mainstream was a sobering reminder of the fragile state of regional diplomacy. Outlets as prestigious as The Telegraph initially amplified the allegation before issued retractions. However, the damage was done. In the Israeli media, the story took on a life of its own, with commentators increasingly branding Turkey as the “next Iran”—a structural, ideological threat that can no longer be managed through trade and back-channel intelligence sharing.
This episode is not merely a case of internet rumors gone wild. It is a symptom of a profound and perhaps irreversible hardening of the Turkey-Israel rift, occurring against the backdrop of the widening U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. As the regional architecture crumbles, Ankara and Jerusalem are finding themselves on a collision course that neither side seems fully capable of—or interested in—averting.
The Syrian Pressure Cooker
While rhetoric flies across the Mediterranean, the most dangerous point of contact remains Syria. Since the collapse of the previous Syrian administration and the subsequent power vacuum, Turkey and Israel have viewed the territory through diametrically opposed lenses. Ankara has moved to stabilize its southern border, seeking to integrate a new Syrian leadership into its sphere of influence—a move that has received cautious “wait-and-see” approval from the Trump 2.0 administration in Washington.
Jerusalem, however, views Turkish expansion in Syria with visceral alarm. Despite the new Syrian government’s signals of diplomatic openness toward Israel, Israeli officials fear that Syria is being transformed into a Turkish “forward operating base.” Last year, during an Oval Office visit, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly suggested that Erdoğan could use Syrian soil to launch an offensive. While President Donald Trump reportedly urged Netanyahu to be “reasonable,” insisting that Turkey could be managed via personal diplomacy, the underlying tension remains. For the first time in decades, the prospect of Israeli air power encountering Turkish military assets over Syrian skies is no longer a theoretical “wargame” scenario; it is a daily operational risk.
The “Fortress Turkey” Sentiment
Inside Turkey, the public mood has undergone a seismic shift. For years, the Palestinian cause and the status of Gaza were seen through the lens of Erdoğan’s domestic political agenda—a rallying cry for his conservative base that rarely resonated with the secular opposition. That divide has vanished.
The 2026 regional escalation, particularly the direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran, has convinced a vast majority of the Turkish public that Israel’s military ambitions are expansive and existential. Recent polling suggests that roughly one-third of Turks now view Israel as a direct military threat to Turkey itself. Even more striking is the consensus: 93% of Turks hold an unfavorable view of the current Israeli government. The prevailing narrative in coffee houses and parliament halls alike is that if Iran falls or is significantly weakened, Turkey will be the next target for regional “reshaping.”
This has birthed a domestic policy of “hardening the home front.” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently remarked that Israel is “trying to create a new enemy for itself,” a sentiment that reflects a belief in Ankara that Turkey is being rhetorically and politically drawn into a trap. This isn’t just talk; Turkey is accelerating its domestic defense production and redirecting military assets to its southern and eastern flanks, preparing for a reality where the “NATO ally” status of the past offers little protection against regional volatility.
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The Trump-Erdoğan-Netanyahu Triangle
If there is a brake on this accelerating crisis, it is currently located in the White House. Both Erdoğan and Netanyahu have abandoned traditional institutional diplomacy in favor of a “leader-to-leader” approach with President Trump. This personalized triangle of power remains the most significant deterrent against a direct clash.
Trump’s public praise for the Turkish military and his insistence that Turkey remains a “strong NATO contributor” have provided Ankara with a vital strategic buffer. It suggests that, despite the pro-Israel tilt of the U.S. political system, the current administration does not view Turkey as an adversary to be excluded from the regional balance. Erdogan and Netanyahu are effectively competing for the “ear of the President,” knowing that Trump remains the ultimate balancer. Neither leader wishes to openly provoke a U.S. president who values loyalty and personal rapport above all else, fearing that a misstep could lead to a sudden withdrawal of American diplomatic or military support.
The European Security Anchor
Beyond the personal ties in Washington, Turkey is leveraging its growing importance to European security. In the wake of “Trump 2.0,” a nervous Europe has realized it moved too slowly in boosting its own defense industrial base. Turkey’s decade-long investment in drone technology, shipbuilding, and missile systems has suddenly made it an indispensable partner for a continent desperate for “readiness.”
Ankara’s potential inclusion in wider European defense spending efforts and its purchase of Eurofighters serve as more than just military upgrades; they are diplomatic insurance. By embedding itself deeper into the European security architecture, Turkey is raising the potential cost of any Israeli escalation. Jerusalem must now consider that an attack on Turkish interests could reverberate through the defense supply chains of Europe, alienating the very allies it needs for its own long-term survival.
A Rivalry Without an End?
Despite the pragmatic brakes of U.S. balancing and European security needs, the relationship is hardening. The rhetoric coming out of Israel, with figures like Naftali Bennett describing Turkey as a strategic threat on par with Iran, is no longer dismissed in Ankara as mere electioneering. It is read as a signal of a long-term shift in Israeli strategic doctrine.
The tragedy of the current moment is that there remains no deep societal hostility between the Turkish and Israeli peoples; the friction is almost entirely ideological and geopolitical. Turkish foreign policy, despite its fierce rhetoric, remains fundamentally pragmatic. If a more moderate government were to emerge in Israel—one invested in diplomacy rather than expansion—the path to normalization could reopen overnight.
However, as 2026 progresses, the greater risk is not a sudden “Pearl Harbor” moment between the two powers, but a slow, cold-war-style hardening of positions. If the current trajectory continues, Turkey and Israel may find themselves locked in an enduring rivalry that lasts decades, regardless of who sits in the Prime Ministry or the Presidential Palace. The disinformation campaign regarding Erdoğan’s “faked threats” was a warning: in the absence of trust, even the past can be weaponized to destroy the future.
Adapted from Responsible Statecraft
About the Author: Fatih Kocaibis is a Turkey-based journalist and political analyst covering U.S. foreign policy, transatlantic relations, and European security, and their implications for Turkish foreign policy.
