Turkish Opposition Leader Özel Faces Judicial Probes as Erdoğan’s Support Erodes Among MHP Base
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Main opposition leader Özgür Özel is now under dual judicial investigation following remarks targeting Istanbul’s chief prosecutor during a rally. The inquiries, coupled with ongoing accusations of vote-buying within the CHP, come as new polling reveals shrinking support for President Erdoğan among nationalist voters and rising skepticism toward the judiciary. The political and legal tensions deepen amid growing public dissatisfaction with Turkey’s justice system and the fallout from Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s imprisonment.
Prosecutors Open Criminal Investigation Against CHP Leader
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office has launched an ex officio investigation into Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairman Özgür Özel for remarks made during a June 4 rally in Istanbul’s Gaziosmanpaşa district. The investigation centers on statements Özel made against Istanbul Chief Prosecutor Akın Gürlek, accusing him of politically motivated prosecutions and threatening judicial overreach.
According to the prosecutor’s office, Özel faces charges under Turkish law for “threatening a judicial official to prevent them from fulfilling their duties” and “publicly insulting a public official.” During his speech, Özel warned Gürlek, saying:
“Akın, you’ve hit a hard rock, son. Get your act together. I won’t witness that disgrace again.”
Özel’s fiery rhetoric came as the CHP protested recent arrests of 11 Istanbul municipal officials and the jailing of Gaziosmanpaşa Mayor Hakan Bahçetepe, whom Özel hailed as innocent and hard-working.
Ankara Prosecutor Also Launches Probe; Vote-Buying Claims Resurface
Simultaneously, the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office opened a separate investigation into Özel, focusing on statements made about the Istanbul judiciary. In parallel, the office is pursuing allegations of vote-buying at the CHP’s 38th Ordinary Congress held in November 2023. Nine parliamentarians, including Özel himself, are under investigation for alleged irregularities in party delegate elections.
Those named in the probe include:
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Özgür Özel (CHP Leader, Manisa)
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Ensar Aytekin (Balıkesir)
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Ali Mahir Başarır (Mersin)
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Gökhan Günaydın (Istanbul)
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Nurhayat Altaca Kayışoğlu (Bursa)
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Özgür Karabat (Istanbul)
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Umut Akdoğan (Ankara)
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Veli Ağbaba (Malatya)
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Turan Taşkın Özer (Istanbul)
The investigation is being conducted under Article 112 of the Political Parties Law, dealing with “providing benefits and electoral manipulation.”
Justice Minister and AK Party Condemn Özel’s Remarks
Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç issued a strong rebuke of Özel’s statements, calling them a threat to judicial independence. He invoked Article 138 of the Turkish Constitution, emphasizing that prosecutors must act solely according to law and conscience.
“Our judges and prosecutors will not yield to threats,” Tunç declared on social media. “Justice operates only with the law—never under pressure.”
Echoing this sentiment, AK Party spokesperson Ömer Çelik denounced Özel’s rhetoric as outside the bounds of legitimate opposition:
“This is not political language. Threats cannot replace discourse. The CHP should focus on addressing its own internal corruption allegations.”
KONDA Poll: Erdoğan Losing MHP Support, Trust in Judiciary Declines
Meanwhile, new polling data from KONDA, cited by journalist Ertuğrul Özkök, shows a notable erosion of President Erdoğan’s support among MHP voters and a crisis of confidence in the judiciary.
Key findings from the May 2025 KONDA survey:
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Erdoğan’s Support Drops Among MHP Voters:
The share of MHP supporters saying they would vote for Erdoğan fell by 19 points. -
Negative Perception Rises:
39% of MHP voters now believe Erdoğan’s re-election would be harmful to Turkey, up 10 points from March. -
Imamoğlu Corruption Claims Losing Traction:
Belief in corruption allegations against jailed Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu dropped from 82% to 73% among MHP voters. -
Judiciary Viewed as Politicized:
72% of respondents believe İmamoğlu’s March 19 arrest was a political—not legal—decision.
Only 26.2% found the judiciary’s evidence convincing; 61.3% rejected it as unpersuasive. -
Judicial System Now a Top Concern:
For the first time, “justice and the judiciary” ranked as the second-biggest national problem, just after inflation and the economy. -
Boycott Response:
24.8% said they participated in the April 2 election boycott. Among those aware, 73.2% said the arrests of boycott organizers were unjust. -
Erdoğan’s Nationwide Standing Worsens:
Erdoğan’s overall vote share dropped from 33% in March to 30% in May.
İmamoğlu’s support rose from 39% to 40%, widening the opposition’s lead. -
DEM Voters’ Shift:
Erdoğan’s only voter gain came from the DEM base, increasing from 2% to 6% support.
Outlook: Political Polarization Deepens as Judiciary Faces Scrutiny
The combination of legal action against opposition figures, deepening mistrust in the judiciary, and falling support for President Erdoğan among nationalist and centrist voters presents a critical turning point in Turkish politics. As Özkök noted in his commentary, these developments may serve as a stark warning for the ruling party—and for the presidential system it upholds.
The growing sense of injustice and erosion of institutional credibility could shape the next electoral cycle and reconfigure public sentiment heading into 2026.
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