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Polls Signal Shifting Political Landscape in Turkey: CHP in the Lead, Public Strongly Backs Early Elections

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Polls conducted across May and early June reveal significant shifts in Turkey’s political landscape. The opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has emerged as the leading political force in three major national polls, widening its lead over the ruling AKP. Meanwhile, a striking majority of Turkish voters now support early elections, despite the government’s rejection of such demands. Perhaps most notably, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has, for the first time in over two decades, lost his status as the most admired political leader in the country—overtaken by CHP leader Özgür Özel.

Di-En Poll: CHP Widens Lead to Nearly 10 Points Over AKP

According to a survey conducted by Di-En Research between May 28 and June 1, 2025, among 2,828 respondents, the CHP has expanded its lead over the AKP to almost 10 percentage points.

Results:

  • CHP: 36.8%

  • AKP: 27.1%

  • DEM Party: 8.7%

  • MHP: 7.1%

  • İYİ Party: 6.9%

  • Victory Party (Zafer): 5.5%

  • New Welfare Party (YRP): 3.0%

  • Innovation Party (YMP): 1.5%

  • Anatolia Party (ANP): 1.2%

  • Workers’ Party of Turkey (TİP): 1.0%

The poll underscores CHP’s rising popularity amid deepening economic and political dissatisfaction.

ORC Poll: CHP Narrowly Ahead, AKP Holds Base

ORC Research conducted another nationwide poll between May 17–20 across 41 provinces with 4,220 participants. Respondents were asked: “If a general election were held this Sunday, which party would you vote for?”

Top Results:

  • CHP: 30.5%

  • AKP: 28.2%

  • MHP: 7.5%

  • DEM Party: 7.1%

  • Victory Party: 4.4%

  • İYİ Party: 4.2%

  • YRP: 4.0%

Other notable entries include:

  • Future Party: 3.1%

  • DEVA: 2.7%

  • BBP: 2.4%

  • YMP: 2.1%

  • TİP: 1.8%

  • Others: 2.0%

These results suggest that while the CHP has pulled ahead, the AKP retains a strong core base. However, the fragmentation of the right-leaning vote hints at potential reconfigurations of alliances.

SONAR Poll: CHP Strengthens Position, DEM Party Gains

In SONAR’s latest nationwide poll—conducted after the controversial arrest of Istanbul Mayor and CHP presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu—CHP’s vote share rose to 36.8%, while AKP fell to 30.8%. The margin between the two reached 6 points.

Top Results:

  • CHP: 36.8%

  • AKP: 30.8%

  • DEM Party: 10.7%

  • MHP: 6.8%

  • İYİ Party: 6.2%

  • Victory Party: 4.1%

  • YRP: 2.9%

  • Others: 1.7%

The DEM Party’s rise above the 10% threshold marks it as a key third force in Turkish politics.

TÜSİAR Survey: Majority of Voters Demand Early Elections

The Turkish Strategic Research and Consulting (TÜSİAR) survey, conducted May 22–25 in over 30 provinces, asked citizens whether they support early elections.

Findings:

  • 61.28% support early elections

  • 37.02% oppose

  • Less than 1% undecided

Despite this clear public demand, both the AKP and MHP have categorically rejected the idea. President Erdoğan and MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli have publicly reiterated that elections will be held as scheduled in 2028.

Leadership Ratings: Özgür Özel Surpasses Erdoğan After 23 Years

In another significant shift, ORC Research conducted a popularity poll between May 27 and June 1, asking 3,100 respondents which party leader they admired most.

Top Results:

  • Özgür Özel (CHP): 47.1%

  • Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (AKP): 44.2%

This marks the first time in 23 years that Erdoğan is no longer the most admired political figure in Turkey. Analysts attribute Özel’s rise to his assertive response to the detainment of key opposition figures, including İmamoğlu, which generated strong sympathy among opposition voters.

Other Notable Leadership Ratings

  • Devlet Bahçeli (MHP): 22.7%

  • Ümit Özdağ (Zafer): 19.4%

  • Müsavat Dervişoğlu (İYİ): 13.5%

  • Tuncer Bakırhan (DEM): 12.9%

  • Teoman Mutlu (YTP): 12.2%

  • Mustafa Destici (BBP): 12.0%

  • Yavuz Ağıralioğlu (Independent): 11.7%

  • Ali Babacan (DEVA): 10.9%

The narrowing gap between Bahçeli and imprisoned nationalist leader Ümit Özdağ suggests turbulence within the far-right vote bloc.

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