SONAR and AREA Polls Show CHP in the Lead as Imamoğlu Gains Public Sympathy

Voter Support for CHP Rises Amid Political Crackdown

Two newly released opinion polls from respected Turkish pollsters SONAR and AREA indicate that the Republican People’s Party (CHP) is solidifying its position as the leading political force in Turkey. Conducted in May 2025, the surveys reflect shifting public sentiment in the wake of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu’s arrest and the growing controversy surrounding his political persecution.

SONAR Poll: CHP Leads by 6 Points

SONAR, a polling firm known for accurately forecasting the last two national elections, released its latest findings showing the CHP at 36.2%, while the ruling AKP trailed with 30.6%. The results come from a nationwide survey asking voters: “If a general election were held this Sunday, which party would you vote for?”

Other parties’ vote shares in the SONAR poll:

• Green Left Party (DEM): 8.2%

• Nationalist Movement Party (MHP): 7.6%

• Good Party (İYİP): 7.2%

• Victory Party (ZP): 4.6%

• New Welfare Party (YRP): 3.9%

This marks a 6-point lead for CHP over AKP, signaling a notable shift in voter preferences.

AREA Survey: CHP Also Leads, Public Disagrees with Imamoğlu’s Arrest

A separate nationwide survey by AREA Research, titled “Turkey’s Political Agenda – May 2025,” confirms similar trends. Conducted in 26 provinces with 2,000 participants between May 20–24, the poll revealed the following vote shares after distributing undecided voters:

• CHP: 34.1%

• AKP: 30.1%

• DEM: 8.1%

• MHP: 7.3%

• İYİ Party: 7.2%

• Victory Party: 4.3%

• A Party: 2.8%

• YRP: 2.6%

• Other: 3.4%

In the unadjusted results (before allocating undecideds), 27% said they would vote for CHP, 23.7% for AKP, and a sizable 21% identified as undecided—a sign that public opinion remains fluid.

Public Reaction to Imamoğlu’s Prosecution: “Unjust and Politically Motivated”

The AREA poll also explored public opinion on the judicial and administrative actions taken against CHP’s presumptive presidential candidate, Ekrem Imamoğlu. Respondents were asked about the cancellation of his university degree and his recent arrest.

• Degree annulment: 29.6% said it was justified (up from 27.1% in April), while 64.5% said it was unjustified (up from 63.5%).

• No opinion: Decreased from 8.8% in April to 5.9% in May.

On Imamoğlu’s arrest under corruption charges:

• 33.6% of respondents in May said the allegations were credible (up slightly from 32.9% in April).

• 55.1% believed the charges were false and politically motivated (up from 52.1%).

• “No opinion” dropped from 15% to 11.3%.

These numbers indicate that public skepticism toward the government’s actions against Imamoğlu is growing, with a majority perceiving the process as a misuse of state power.

Opposition Momentum Builds

Both SONAR and AREA surveys confirm that CHP is leading Turkey’s political race for now. More significantly, the data reveals that the government’s aggressive legal tactics may be backfiring. Imamoğlu’s imprisonment and the annulment of his candidacy have drawn widespread criticism and appear to be strengthening his appeal among voters.

The opposition, long fragmented and reactive, now seems to be rallying around a unifying figure and cause. With the ruling AKP’s support stagnating and the nationalist MHP and conservative YRP failing to gain traction, the polls suggest that voters are increasingly open to an alternative vision for Turkey.

Turkish press sources

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