Şamil Tayyar: CHP Has Hit Its Ceiling Despite Leading in Polls

Former AKP MP says public backlash after İmamoğlu investigation failed to push CHP beyond 30%

Former AKP Central Executive Board (MKYK) Member and ex-Gaziantep MP Şamil Tayyar has weighed in on the latest political polling data, arguing that while the main opposition CHP appears to be ahead of the ruling AKP in multiple surveys, the results are far from promising for the party’s future prospects.

“Polls conducted after the investigation into Ekrem İmamoğlu are starting to hit the market. So far, six have been made public,” Tayyar wrote in a social media post, referencing the backlash over the controversial legal action against the Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor. According to the average of six polling companies, Tayyar noted that CHP stands at 33.5%, while AKP trails at 29.45%.

Despite the opposition’s lead, Tayyar claimed this wasn’t a sign of significant momentum. “Looking at voter behavior influenced by factors like the cost of living and demand for prosperity, AKP is clearly going through its most disadvantaged period in 23 years,” he said. “When you add the societal tension triggered by the İmamoğlu investigation, CHP still fails to inspire hope of governing alone. The current numbers mark the political peak for CHP. Yet the best they can do is reach the 30% range. Considering the 50+1 threshold needed to win, this is not a hopeful picture.”

“CHP Squandered the İmamoğlu Momentum”

Tayyar went further to suggest that the street protests sparked by İmamoğlu’s legal troubles may have stalled the opposition's progress. “By turning the streets into chaotic scenes, intimidating even high schoolers, resorting to blackmail and boycotts, and using divisive rhetoric, the opposition tried to narrow the political field—yet the outcome was predictable,” he argued.

He framed the current political climate as an opportunity for the ruling bloc. “Even in its weakest moment, AKP still hovers around the 30% mark. Add in MHP, and the government bloc retains around 40% of voter support,” Tayyar said.

He concluded with a message of optimism for AKP’s chances:
“If economic conditions improve, public welfare increases, and developments in the İmamoğlu file unfold in ways the CHP can’t explain—plus if terrorism is eradicated—then the balance will shift entirely in favor of the ruling party,” he wrote.
“In short, CHP wasted the İmamoğlu wind. But this also increases the responsibility of the government. I believe we are entering the final stretch now. With nearly 30% of voters still undecided, the side that shifts gears, inspires new dreams, and offers a compelling story will win the race.”