Export Demand Trends: Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Market Resilience

The TİM Export Demand Index experienced a decline in March 2026, falling 0.9% month-on-month and 0.1% compared to the same month last year. At 98.8, the index has officially dipped below its long-term average. This downward export demand trends highlights a tightening of international market conditions, largely driven by shifts in macroeconomic indicators in key export destinations.

Export Demand Trends: Confidence vs. Production

The index, which monitors demand conditions across export markets using leading macroeconomic data, revealed a complex landscape in March. While there were marginal improvements in global unemployment, inflation, and industrial production, these gains were overshadowed by significant declines in business and consumer confidence.

Furthermore, the TİM Market Resilience Index saw a sharper contraction, falling 3.1% monthly and 1.4% annually to 96.6. Experts note that the pronounced rise in global geopolitical risks is the primary factor undermining the endurance of export markets, making them more susceptible to external shocks.

Sectoral Performance: From Carpets to Defense

Performance across various industries showed significant divergence in March. While some sectors managed to maintain demand levels above the threshold, others struggled as market interest contracted.

Export Demand Index Highlights:

• Highest Demand: The carpet sector led with a score of 100.4, followed closely by cereals, pulses, and oilseeds at 100.1.

• Moderate Demand: Tobacco (100.1), olives and olive oil (99.8), and mining products (99.8) remained near the baseline.

• Lowest Demand: The ship, yacht, and services sector recorded the weakest performance at 97.0, followed by defense and aerospace (97.8) and jewelry (97.9).

Market Resilience Index Highlights:

• Highest Resilience: Hazelnuts and products proved most resilient at 98.2, with ornamental plants (97.9) and steel (97.7) also showing relative stability.

• Lowest Resilience: Interestingly, despite high demand, the carpet sector showed the lowest resilience at 92.2. Defense and aerospace (93.5) and cement, glass, and ceramics (93.8) also faced significant volatility.

Monthly Growth Leaders

Despite the general downturn, a few sectors bucked the trend in monthly demand growth. Tobacco saw the highest increase at 1.4%, followed by fresh fruits and vegetables (0.7%) and olives and olive oil (0.5%). Notably, the Market Resilience Index declined across all sectors on a monthly basis, signaling a universal increase in market fragility.

source: foreks