JPMorgan’s Key Forecast: How Long Will the CBRT Continue Cutting Rates?

JPMorgan has said Turkey’s latest 100-basis-point rate cut by the Central Bank (CBRT) was in line with expectations and predicted that monetary easing will continue through the end of the year. The bank expects one more cut in December, followed by a gradual reduction in 2025–2026 that could bring the policy rate down to 38.5% by end-2025 and 30.5% by end-2026.

JPMorgan: “Rate cut consistent with expectations”

In a note assessing Thursday’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision, JPMorgan said the 100-basis-point cut matched both its internal forecast and market consensus.

The CBRT cited persisting inflation risks stemming from recent food price movements, emphasizing that “downside risks to the disinflation process remain” despite moderation in expectations and pricing behavior.

JPMorgan, however, expects the easing cycle to continue, projecting another 100-basis-point cut on December 11, which would bring the policy rate to 38.5% by end-2025.

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Gradual easing path through 2026

According to the bank’s base scenario, the CBRT will maintain a measured easing pace through 2026, trimming rates by 100 basis points per meeting next year. This would bring the benchmark rate down to 30.5% by end-2026.

The U.S. investment bank said that while disinflation is progressing slower than anticipated, the central bank appears committed to balancing growth concerns with its inflation-reduction objectives.

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October meeting seen as critical turning point

Market participants are now focused on the CBRT’s October MPC meeting, which JPMorgan described as “critical” due to recent inflation dynamics. The bank expects October inflation to slow disinflation momentum further.

According to the CBRT’s official calendar, there will be no policy meeting in November, with the next key milestones being:

• October 31: Publication of the MPC summary

• November 3 (Monday): Release of October inflation data

• December 11: Final MPC meeting of 2025, where the next rate cut is expected

Inflation outlook still uncertain

Analysts note that while headline inflation has shown signs of plateauing, food and services prices remain sticky, posing a challenge to the central bank’s disinflation goals.

JPMorgan added that the CBRT’s cautious tone and data-dependent guidance suggest it will continue cutting rates “as long as real rates remain positive and inflation expectations stabilize.”