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Discrepancy in Türkiye’s Restaurant Inflation: Official Data vs. Web-Based Index

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According to official figures released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), inflation in restaurant and food service prices slowed significantly in May 2025, falling below 2% monthly increase—a level not seen in recent years. However, prominent economist Prof. Dr. Hakan Kara has raised questions about the accuracy of this figure, citing a divergence from web-based inflation indices.

TÜİK’s broader May Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported a monthly increase of 1.53%, bringing the annual rate to 35.41% and the year-to-date increase to 15.09%. On a 12-month average basis, inflation stood at 45.80%.

“Significant Slowdown” or Data Mismatch?

In a post on social media, Kara highlighted the sharp drop in price hikes for restaurant and meal services. He compared monthly inflation in the same group over the years:

  • May 2022: 5.2%

  • May 2023: 7%

  • May 2024: 5.5%

  • May 2025: <2%

He referred to this decline as a “marked deceleration.” But he also warned that this trend is not supported by independent data, specifically the Web-TÜFE index, an alternative inflation tracker that uses online prices.

Web-TÜFE Says Price Hikes Continue

According to the latest Web-TÜFE report, published on May 24, the restaurant and hotel group experienced a 4.67% monthly price increase, far surpassing both the headline CPI (1.78%) and overall service inflation (2.30%). This spike was driven largely by accommodation costs, which jumped 23.88%, according to Web-TÜFE.

In contrast, food and non-alcoholic beverages showed just a 1.16% monthly rise, marking their lowest increase of the year.

Dueling Data Sources Expose Inflation Complexities

These differences underscore the growing debate over inflation measurement in Türkiye, especially as alternative indices like Web-TÜFE reveal higher sector-specific inflation rates than official figures suggest. Analysts say this gap may further complicate the Central Bank’s monetary policy response and public trust in government statistics.

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