February Polls: Economy Reigns as Top Crisis; Erdogan and MHP See Major Decline

As Turkey moves through the first quarter of 2026, new data from multiple polling agencies—ASAL, MLS, and HBS Research—paints a picture of a nation gripped by economic hardship and a shifting political landscape. The findings suggest that the long-standing dominance of the AKP-MHP alliance is facing its most significant challenge since the 2023 elections.

The Economy: An Unshakable Number One Problem

According to ASAL Research, conducted across 26 provinces between February 13–21, the Turkish public’s focus is singular. A staggering 56% of participants identified the “economy and the cost of living” as Turkey’s most pressing issue. Despite official government narratives suggesting a recovery, other concerns lag far behind:

• Justice and Law: 7.5%

• Unemployment: 4.8%

• Education: 4.2%

The data underscores a deep-seated grievance regarding eroded disposable income, a sentiment further exacerbated by the regional volatility and energy-driven inflation stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict.

Presidential Race: İmamoğlu Widens the Gap from Silivri

Perhaps the most shocking data comes from HBS Research, which simulated a second-round presidential runoff between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the CHP’s Ekrem İmamoğlu.

Despite his current incarceration in Silivri Prison—a situation many voters perceive as political victimization—İmamoğlu leads with 55.3% of the vote. In contrast, President Erdoğan’s support has dwindled to 44.7%. This 10.6-point margin marks a dramatic reversal from the 2023 results, where Erdoğan secured victory with 52.18%. Analysts attribute this shift to a “protest vote” against economic conditions and a growing perception of judicial overreach by the executive branch.

The Parliamentary Squeeze: MHP and IYI Party Under the Threshold

The latest MLS Research results show a narrowing race for the top spot, but a devastating trend for smaller parties:

• CHP: 32% (1st Place)

• AKP: 30% (2nd Place)

• DEM Party: 7% (At the threshold)

The most notable casualty in the current polls is the MHP, the AKP’s staunch nationalist ally. After securing over 10% in previous cycles, the MHP has plummeted to 6.5%, falling below the 7% national electoral threshold. Similarly, the IYI Party has seen its support drop to 5.7%.

Why is the Nationalist Vote Migrating?

Commentary from PA Turkey analysts suggests the MHP’s decline is linked to leader Devlet Bahçeli’s controversial “Peace Process” stance. Rumors of a blanket amnesty for militants and a revised status for PKK leader Öcalan have alienated the party’s core nationalist base. These voters appear to be migrating toward alternative nationalist factions like the BBP (4.2%) and Zafer Party (3.9%).

Analysis: A Deadlock of Credibility

While the AKP is bleeding support, the CHP has yet to create a decisive lead. Although they currently sit at the top of the polls, the party struggles to exceed the 32% mark. This stagnation is attributed to two factors:

1. Economic Vision: The CHP has yet to present a coherent, alternative economic agenda that fully persuades AKP’s traditional “bread-and-butter” voters that they can manage the crisis better.

2. Judicial Pressure: The government’s continued legal pressure on figures like İmamoğlu and attempts to portray the opposition as corrupt or disorganized have successfully sown some level of doubt among undecided voters.

The Outlook: With the “Iran War-cum-inflation” likely to further erode meager incomes in the coming months, the pressure on the AKP-MHP bloc will only intensify. Unless the government can produce a tangible “economic miracle,” the gap between the ruling alliance and the opposition is projected to widen as the year progresses.

Would you like me to take any further steps? I can compile a comparative table of these three polls for a clearer side-by-side view, or I can draft an editorial piece focusing on how the “İmamoğlu factor” is playing out in the international press.

The following table summarizes the key data points from the three major research reports released in February 2026. This comparison highlights the narrowing gap between the two leading parties and the struggle for smaller nationalist parties to maintain their presence.

Editorial: The “İmamoğlu Factor” in the International Press

The international media is increasingly viewing the rise of Ekrem İmamoğlu—despite his imprisonment in Silivri—as a “litmus test” for Turkish democracy. Major global outlets have noted that the 10.6-point lead reported by HBS Research is not merely a preference for a different candidate, but a profound symbolic movement.

• The Victimhood Narrative: International analysts suggest that the judicial pressure exerted on İmamoğlu has backfired. Instead of removing him from the political equation, it has solidified his status as a martyr for the opposition, attracting undecided voters who are weary of executive interference in the judiciary.

• Economic Despair vs. Political Strategy: While the government attempts to focus on national security and geopolitical maneuvers in the Iran conflict, the foreign press highlights that the Turkish electorate is primarily voting with their wallets. The “melt” in MHP’s support is seen as a direct rejection of the current alliance’s inability to shield the public from skyrocketing energy prices and inflation.

• The Credibility Gap: For the international community, the question remains whether the CHP can translate this polling success into a stable governing coalition. While the numbers are in their favor, the lack of a detailed, internationally-vetted economic roadmap remains a point of skepticism for foreign investors and diplomats alike.