Turkey’s Voters See AKP’s Economic Performance Plummet, ASAL Survey Shows
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Public perception of the ruling AKP’s success in managing the economy has fallen sharply, according to a new nationwide survey by ASAL Research. While defense remains the government’s strongest area, confidence in its economic performance has dropped to just 13%, one of the lowest levels recorded in years.
Defense Still Leads, But Support Weakens
The ASAL survey, conducted between September 12–18 across 26 provinces with 2,000 respondents, asked participants in which areas they considered the government to be most successful.
The defense industry ranked first — long considered a hallmark of President Erdoğan’s rule — but even there, approval stood below 55%. Defense was followed by transportation, energy, and counterterrorism, with success rates in the mid-40% range.
Analysts say the findings indicate growing public fatigue with the government’s performance, even in its traditionally strongest policy areas.
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Economy Seen as Government’s Weakest Link
The survey found the economy to be the AKP government’s least successful policy area, with only 13.2% of respondents saying the administration was performing well.
This marks a steep drop from earlier in the year, when around one-quarter of voters expressed confidence in the government’s economic management. The decline reflects public frustration with high inflation, a weak lira, and rising living costs, despite the government’s wage hikes and stimulus measures.
Following the economy, respondents cited justice, unemployment, family policy, and education as areas where the government was underperforming.
Moderate Ratings in Agriculture and Health
Sectors where the government maintained moderate approval ratings (30–40%) included agriculture, refugee management, healthcare, urban transformation, and foreign policy.
Political observers note that while these figures are not disastrous, they reflect a growing sense that the AKP’s once-dominant reputation for governance competence has eroded.
Opposition Gains Momentum in Parallel Polls
The ASAL results come amid a series of recent polls showing the opposition CHP maintaining a narrow lead ahead of the ruling AKP.
A separate ORC survey conducted October 20–22 found the CHP at 31.2%, the AKP at 30%, and the pro-Kurdish DEM Party at 8.2%, followed by the MHP at 8%.
Meanwhile, a presidential poll by HBS Research — conducted following the arrest of CHP’s detained presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu — found him leading President Erdoğan by a wide margin.
In a two-way contest, İmamoğlu received 58.7% of the vote, compared to 41.3% for Erdoğan.
A Shifting Political Landscape
Taken together, the surveys suggest that while defense and infrastructure continue to anchor the AKP’s appeal, economic dissatisfaction remains the dominant factor shaping public opinion.
Analysts warn that unless the government can restore confidence in its economic management, especially amid rising unemployment and inflation, its electoral position may weaken further in the run-up to 2026.
