CHP Gains Momentum as Polls Show Rise in Support Ahead of Possible Early Election

A new series of opinion polls by GENAR, HBS, and Piar show the Republican People’s Party (CHP) gaining ground against the ruling AK Party. Analysts say public backlash over the Istanbul provincial trusteeship dispute and recent opposition turmoil have consolidated support around CHP.

GENAR Poll: CHP Rises Two Points in September

A new GENAR survey, led by prominent pollster İhsan Aktaş, reveals a notable increase in support for the Republican People’s Party (CHP) in September, while the Justice and Development Party (AKP) maintained its position.

According to GENAR’s findings:
AK Party 33.9%, CHP 32.2%, DEM Party 9.9%, MHP 8.5%, IYI Party 5.2%, Zafer Party 3.6%, Yeniden Refah Party 2.2%, TIP 1.3%, Saadet 1.0%, Anahtar 0.9%, BBP 0.6%.

In comparison, the August survey recorded AK Party at 33.6% and CHP at 30.3%, marking a two-point rise for the main opposition within a single month.

“External Pressure Strengthened the Opposition”

Columnist Abdülkadir Selvi of Hürriyet newspaper attributed CHP’s gains to a sense of public backlash created by recent political interventions.

“The appointment of Gürsel Tekin as trustee to the Istanbul CHP Provincial Office, the police’s use of tear gas against protesters, and rumors about appointing Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as a caretaker all triggered a reaction in the opposition camp,” Selvi wrote. “This consolidated the CHP base and drew additional support from other opposition parties.”

According to Selvi, such dynamics are not new in Turkish politics: “External intervention often benefits the perceived victim.”

Earlier this year, CHP’s support had peaked near 35% during the uproar following Ekrem İmamoğlu’s detention on March 19, but later slipped below 30% as the party struggled to develop broader policy proposals beyond the mayor’s popularity.

HBS and Piar Polls Confirm CHP Lead

The trend is echoed by other independent polling firms. HBS Research, which accurately predicted the 2023 presidential election results, published its latest nationwide survey conducted between September 28 and October 2, 2025, based on 3,200 face-to-face interviews.

According to HBS, CHP now leads the AK Party by several points. When asked which party respondents would consider voting for,
44.6% said CHP, while 41.8% named the AK Party.
IYI Party followed with 18.3%, and MHP with 17.8%.

Similarly, Piar Research released results from its “Turkey Political Agenda Survey,” carried out between September 30 and October 3 across 26 provinces with 2,264 respondents. The results placed CHP first and AK Party second in voting potential.

Emerging Parties and Shifting Voter Base

Beyond the main two parties, Piar’s poll revealed a diverse field of rising smaller parties:

• Workers’ Party of Turkey (TIP): 15.3%

• Zafer Party: 14.8%

• Independent Turkey Party (BTP): 13.6%

• DEM Party: 12.7%

• New Welfare Party (YRP): 7.6%

• New Path Alliance (Saadet–DEVA–Future): 4.1%

Analysts note that while smaller parties retain visibility, the opposition electorate appears to be reconsolidating around CHP ahead of a potential early general election.

“A Sign of Consolidation”

Political analysts suggest the recent surge in CHP’s support reflects a rallying effect within the opposition following months of fragmentation.

Public reaction to the Istanbul trusteeship, the extraordinary party congress, and ongoing debates over leadership succession have re-energized the CHP base and reignited calls for unity among disillusioned opposition voters.

The AK Party, meanwhile, appears to be holding steady but not expanding its voter base, despite economic recovery efforts and targeted social spending programs.

As speculation grows over a possible snap election in 2026, the opposition’s newfound cohesion may determine whether CHP can convert polling momentum into electoral success.