Video Commentary:  Fate of TL, Interest Rates to be Set by Erdogan-Biden Meeting


First contact between Presidents R. T. Erdogan and Joe Biden will take place on 14 June, on the sides of the Brussels NATO summit.


  • White House had expressed its displeasure with Erdogan’s conduct through several means, asking for certain improvements.


  • What are the key disputes? Allegations about  Fethullah Gulen, Halkbank trial, the status of Kurds in North East Syria, Turkey’s poor human rights record, S-400 anti-missile systems.


  • Biden holds most of the ace cards. But it is not clear what he shall demand from Erdogan if anything.


  • Erdogan goes to the summit at the weakest juncture in his 20 year reign.

I focus on TL and interest rates as a simple way to explain how the summit results could reverberate in Turkish economy and politics.


  • There are three scenarios. Only one is favorable to Turkey.

In the worst-case scenario a currency shock, recession, and early elections are in the cards.


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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.