Turkstat consumer confidence sinks amidst signs of demand slowdown

Turkstat (official) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) decreased by 7.3% to 67.3 in  April (March: 72.5, +1.9% MoM).  There was no consensus  available for the data,  however BloombergHT CCI Index, which is a  leading indicator for the data, had  increased by 17.9% to 54.6 in April.  Both surveys revealed a slight degree of optimism, probably driven by the stable exchange rate about future economic conditions. On the other hand, rising inflation and expectations have a perverse impact on spending behavior. Households intentions to increase spending despite poor financial well-being to avoid higher prices in the future.

The details of the index, as reported by Yatirim Invest economics team are as follows:

In monthly basis, all main sub-indices recorded decreases. Expectations for wage change and  assessment of spending on semi-durables were over the critical value  of 100 which indicates  positive sentiment about future economic conditions.

15 of 18 sub-indices recorded monthly decreases. Highest monthly decreases were seen on economic situation at present, financial situation  of  household, and financial situation of  household vs last 1 year whereas.  The highest monthly positive  changes were seen on expectations  for wage changes, current  financial situation of household and  probability of buying a car.



Three Scourges of Turkish Economy: Unemployment, Inflation, and External Deficit | Real Turkey


According to 3-month average  figures, downward trend on financial situation of households sustained as probability of borrowing money for the consumption expenditures increase.  In other words, despite lower disposable incomes, household project higher prices for the future, preferring spending to saving. This trend is accentuated by artificially low loan rates, currently about 20% per annum, which encourages households to borrow to buy homes and durables. In other words, households understand   that it makes sense to borrow  at deeply negative real interest rates, with a view on acquiring real assets, the value of which is likely to increase in the future.


3-month average figures indicate  that saving  and buying of durables  intentions increased as the assessment on consumer prices changes starts to deteriorate.




Follow our  English language YouTube videos  @ REAL TURKEY:



And content at Twitter: @AtillaEng








Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.