Morgan Stanley: On a delicate balance stands Turkey’s economy

In Morgan Stanley’s Sunday  “Mid-Year Global Macro Outlook” report, the investment bank expressed dim  prospects for Turkey’s economy.

Morgan Stanley’s “Global Mid-Year Macro Outlook” report has been published and made headlines in Turkish economy pages. According to the report, despite a strong start to the year, Turkish GDP is expected 4.8 percent contraction in 2020. Similar results were announced by World Bank and OECD, but Finance and Treasury Minister Mr. Berat Albayrak  claims Turkey will manage to grow in 2020, too.

“Turkey: A delicate balance” titled evaluation states that, “With high external financing needs and considering the sharp drop in foreign currency reserves to buffer the economy’s vulnerability to an external funding environment; we foresee a difficulties going ahead.”

In the report it was stated that Turkey’s economy was affected both domestically as a result the Covid-19 constraints and insufficient state aid measures, as well as by the decline in foreign demand. In particular, it was underlined that the service sector, including tourism, was hit hard.

It was stated that the rise in inflation in May will not discourage the Central Bank from further monetary expansion. “We expect an inflationary effect due to the weakness of TL, but we also expect low oil prices and a sharp decline in domestic demand to balance the government’s import restrictions.” Expecting an average of 10.6 percent inflation annually in 2020, the institution expects it to decline to 7.6 percent by the end of the year.

In the report it was stated that, “Although real interest rates are one of the lowest among emerging markets, we believe that focusing on growth and future real interest rates will allow the CBRT to cut interest rates down to 7.50 percent this year.” Morgan Stanley expects Turkey’s budget deficit, due to high expenditure and the economic downturn, to increase to 6.4 percent this year, in part due to low tax collection.

According to Morgan Stanley, the exit from the global Covid-19 recession will take the form of V. The recession will be more severe but shorter than expected.  It has forecast an average 1.6% GDP decline for Developing Nations, highlighting the delicacy of the Turkish economy.

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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.