Macro Snapshot: Foreign Trade Statistics, July 2021

Foreign trade gave a deficit of USD4.3bn in July.

According to TurkStat’s unadjusted data of July,

  • Exports increased by 10.2% YoY to USD16.4bn
  • Imports increased by 16.8% YoY to USD20.7bn
  • Foreign trade deficit increased by 51.3% YoY to USD4.3bn
  • 12-month trailing trade deficit increased by 3.1% MoM to USD48.6bn.

According to the calendar-adjusted data,

  • Exports increased by 26.4% YoY to USD19bn
  • Imports increased by 31.4% YoY to USD23.5bn

According to the seasonal and calendar adjusted data,

  • Exports decreased by 1.1% MoM to USD18.5bn
  • Imports increased by 4.2% MoM to USD22.3bn

Foreign trade deficit increased by 51.3% YoY to US4.3bn in July and increased by 3.1% MoM to USD48.6bn in 12-month annulized basis (Prior: USD-47.2, 2020: USD49.9bn).

SA foreign trade figures point to a monthly deficit of USD3.8bn, up by 41.3% MoM.

Exports at USD16.4bn, up by 10.2% YoY in July and at USD201bn in last 12-month period,
up by 0.8% MoM (Prior: USD199.5bn, 2020: USD:169.6bn).

Capital and intermediate goods recorded 2.7% and 23% yearly increases, respectively. However, consumption goods decreased by 1.3% YoY.

The share of the European countries in Turkey’s exports is around 56.9% in July (2013-2020 Average: 54.4%).

Total imports increased by 16.8% YoY to USD20.7bn in July and 12- month annualized figure increased by 1.2% MoM to USD249.6bn in July (Prior: USD246.7bn, 2020: USD219.5bn).

Only intermediate goods increased by 25.7% YoY whereas capital and consumption goods recorded 1.3% and 14.6% YoY decreases, respectively.

12-month energy imports increased by 4.6% MoM to USD34.9bn (Prior: USD33.4bn, 2020: USD28.9bn) whereas gold imports decreased by 8.9% MoM to USD18.3bn (Prior:
USD20bn, 2020: USD25.2bn). Accordingly, total imports excluding energy and gold increased by 1.7% MoM to USD196.5bn (Prior: USD193.3bn, 2020: USD165.4bn).

Turkey’s exports to Germany (which has the highest share in Turkey’s exports with 8.9%) increased by 26.7% YoY in 7M21.

Exports-to-imports ratio was 79.3% in July (2013-2020 Average: 73%).

With the announced trade deficit figure and foreign visitors data, we estimate July C/A deficit could be around USD277mn, according to our first calculations which could
drive 12-month rolling C/A decifit from USD29.7bn in June to USD28bn in July.




Source: Y. F. Securities Research