Macro Snapshot: CBRT Survey of Market Participants

MoM expectations for next 3 months indicates that the monthly CPI data would remarkably above of the historical averages (2003- 2019 Median –Dec.: +0.4% Jan.: +1.0% Feb.: +0.5%).

According to the Survey, YoY CPI would continue to increase in next 3 months and to reach 26.8% in February 2022.

CPI expectations continued to deteriorate for all terms. Year-end CPI expectation reached to 23.86%, up by 454bps MoM.

According to the probability distributions of inflation expectaions, YoY CPI is expected
to be at double-digit levels with a 100% of probability in the coming 12-months while that probability hit 90.8% for 24-month ahead.

Expectations for 12-month ahead ahead increased by 578bps to 21.39. Additionally, expectations for 24-month ahead continued to stay at double-digit levels for the 7th consecutive month by 14.41%, up by 265bps.

Also, expectations for 5-year ahead continued to deteriorate for the 11th month in a row with 8.72%, up by 76bps.

BIST o/n repo rate is expected to be at 14.93% at the end of the month.

Policy rate (15%) would be cut by 50bps in this month and there could be additional 25bps of cut in next 3 months.

The policy rate could be at 14.25- 14.5% in 12-month ahead and around 13.75% in 24-month ahead.

Economic growth expectation of 2021 increased from from 9.2% to 9.9% while next year’s expected growth decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%.

Expectations of 12-month current account deficit of 2021 decreased from USD19.2bn to USD15.6bn and next year’s expectations decreased from USD19bn to USD11.2bn.

Expectations of USDTRY level deteriorated sharply in December.

Expectations of USDTRY currency for the year-end increased by 38% to 13.77 and 12-month ahead increased by 42.4% to 15.56.



Y. F. Securitie Research