May survey data from Turkey reveals a modest improvement in economic activity, as restrictions on production and social mobility were gradually eased during the month. Starting with the consumer side, the behavior of which remains essential to a robust, recovery, Bloomberg HT Consumer Confidence Index increased by 12.44 percent in May compared to the previous month and reached 73.20. The demarcation between pessimism and optimism being at 100, the improvement simply mean that consumers have become less cautious about the future.
When the details of the index are examined, it is seen that the increase mainly resulted from the rise in expectations for the next 12 months. The main reason for the recovery in Consumer Confidence seems to be the gradual opening plan of the economy and its reflections on the financial markets due to the decrease in the number of new cases and deaths by the coronavirus.
In this context, the survey observed that Bloomberg HT Consumer Expectation Index increased by 12.03 percent compared to the previous month to reach 82.40. On the other hand, the Bloomberg HT Consumption Tendency Index, which tries to measure the suitability of the period for consumer durables and the purchase of automobiles and housing and has a positive though varying correlation with GDP, has increased by 32.65 percent to 62.58.
The survey notes that that the evolution of the coronavirus epidemic will continue to be the most important factor in determining the course of the index in the coming period.
Turkey continued to report new cases falling to high three-digits for the lats two data dates, but with intercity travel bans lifted and well-heeled flocking to warm Aegean and Mediterranean vacation sports, the specter of a second wave looms large on the horizon.
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