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Matriks Survey Sees April Inflation at 3.23%, USD/TRY Outlook Remains Elevated

dollar inflation

A survey by Matriks, the leading online news agency,  shows Turkish economists expect monthly inflation to accelerate to 3.23% in April, with annual inflation hovering above 31%. Medium-term inflation expectations remain elevated, while forecasts for USD/TRY point to continued depreciation toward the 50–60 range over the next two years.

April Inflation Expected to Rise

A survey conducted by Matriks among 26 banks and brokerage firms indicates that Turkey’s consumer prices are expected to increase in April.

According to the survey:

  • Median monthly CPI forecast: 3.23%
  • Median annual CPI forecast: 31.16%

Average expectations stood at:

  • Monthly: 3.20%
  • Annual: 31.14%

Forecast Range Signals Uncertainty

Among 24 institutions providing estimates:

  • Monthly inflation forecasts ranged between 2.50% and 3.60%
  • Annual inflation projections fell within a 30.20%–31.63% band

The relatively wide range reflects ongoing uncertainty in price dynamics.

March Inflation Came in Below Expectations

The March CPI reading undershot expectations:

  • Monthly: 1.94% (vs. 2.35% forecast)
  • Annual: 30.87%

Despite the downside surprise, inflation expectations for April point to renewed upward momentum.

Core Inflation Remains More Moderate

Estimates for the core CPI index (C index), which excludes energy, food, alcohol, tobacco and gold, suggest a more moderate trend.

According to nine economists:

  • Monthly core inflation: 2.53%
  • Annual core inflation: 28.60%

Markets Await Official Data

April inflation data will be released by the Turkish Statistical Institute on May 4 at 10:00 a.m. local time.

The figures are expected to play a key role in shaping monetary policy expectations.

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Year-End Inflation Forecast Revised Higher

Economists have revised up their expectations for end-2026 inflation.

  • Median forecast: 28.00%
  • Range: 22.90%–30.00%

This compares with 25.80% in the previous survey, indicating a deterioration in expectations.

2027 and 12-Month Outlook

Medium-term projections suggest inflation will remain elevated:

  • End-2027 CPI forecast: 22.00%
  • 12-month ahead forecast: 23.50%

Core inflation expectations:

  • End-2026: 27.00%
  • End-2027: 22.00%

USD/TRY Seen Rising Toward 52 by Year-End

Currency forecasts point to continued depreciation of the Turkish lira.

According to 18 analysts:

  • Median USD/TRY forecast for end-2026: 51.7750
  • Highest estimate: 53.20
  • Lowest estimate: 50.00

The previous survey showed a similar median of 51.80.

Longer-Term FX Outlook Remains Weak

  • 12-month USD/TRY forecast: 53.25
  • End-2027 median forecast: 59.20

The latter represents a slight downward revision from the previous estimate of 59.60, but still signals a persistent weakening trend.

Conclusion: Inflation Sticky, Currency Pressures Persist

The Matriks survey highlights a challenging outlook for Turkey’s economy:

  • Inflation expectations remain elevated across all horizons
  • Core inflation shows some moderation but remains high
  • The Turkish lira is expected to weaken further

The upcoming inflation release will be closely watched for signals on the trajectory of monetary policy and price dynamics.

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