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Housing Sector Expectations: Interest Rate Cut Hopes Fade

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Housing Sector Expectations in Türkiye took a more cautious turn according to the latest survey results released by the Association of Housing Developers and Investors (KONUTDER) and NielsenIQ Turkey. The survey, published on April 20, 2026, reveals that the previously unanimous expectation for an interest rate cut has weakened significantly. Projections for a rate drop plummeted from 100% in the previous period to 54.2%, signaling that the industry is bracing for a “higher-for-longer” monetary environment.

Shifting Sentiments: Credit, Prices, and Foreign Demand

The cooling expectations for interest rate cuts have directly impacted forecasts for credit-based sales. Only 50% of participants now expect an increase in mortgage sales, down from 76%. Despite the credit squeeze, the survey highlights a “safe haven” effect due to rising geopolitical risks in the Gulf region.

  • Foreign Sales Rebound: Expectations for increased sales to foreigners surged to 33.3% (up from just 4% in the previous survey), as regional instability drives international investors toward the Turkish market.

  • Price Hikes Imminent: 83.3% of respondents expect housing prices to rise further, fueled by relentless cost pressures.

  • Cost Pressures: Material prices (83.3%) and labor costs (70.8%) remain the primary drivers of projected price increases.

Production and Urban Transformation Trends

Despite the tightening financial conditions, the Housing Sector Expectations survey shows that developers remain committed to supply. 70.8% of KONUTDER members plan to launch new projects or start sales within the next six months.

Metric Previous Period Current Period (2026)
Expectation of Price Increase $72\%$ $83.3\%$
Expectation of Production Increase $28\%$ $37.5\%$
Expectation of Foreign Sales Rise $4\%$ $33.3\%$
Expectation of Interest Rate Cut $100\%$ $54.2\%$

Rental Market and Sectoral Resilience

In a rare silver lining for tenants, the momentum of rent increases appears to be slowing. The proportion of those expecting rents to rise fell from 80% to 62.5%, while 37.5% believe rents will remain stable.

KONUTDER President Ziya Yılmaz noted that the sector is exhibiting a “strong stance” despite the geopolitical and financial headwinds. He emphasized that the rise in production expectations suggests the industry views the current high-interest environment as a temporary fluctuation rather than a long-term crisis. “Türkiye remains a ‘safe harbor’ for investors due to its strategic location and robust domestic market,” Yılmaz added, calling for holistic policies to maintain market sustainability.

Source: cumhuriyet

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