AKP’s Three “Winning Scenarios” for Next Election  are a Pipedream, Says Mehmet Tezkan

Mr Mehmet Tezkan is a dissident  columnist writing for pro-ooposition newsportal HalkTV.com.tr

Columnist Mehmet Tezkan argues that the ruling AKP faces a difficult path to electoral victory, outlining three key objectives the government appears to be pursuing. However, he describes these goals as increasingly unrealistic, citing voter disillusionment following the 2023 elections and ongoing economic pressures.

Fading Power of Political Messaging

Tezkan notes that narratives previously used by the government are losing their impact:

• Security concerns and regional instability
• Promises of economic recovery and prosperity
• Claims of Türkiye becoming a global power

These messages, widely deployed during the 2023 elections, no longer resonate with voters.

Voter Disillusionment After 2023

According to Tezkan:

• Many voters who supported the government in 2023 now express regret
• Key promises—lower inflation and improved living standards—failed to materialize
• Minimum wage earners, retirees and students have experienced a “psychological break” from the government

He argues that voters feel misled, as post-election inflation surged sharply despite pre-election assurances.

Election Timing Debate

While the next election is officially expected in late 2027, Tezkan suggests it could be delayed until early 2028.

His reasoning:

• Pre-election wage increases may no longer influence voter behavior
• Previous strategies of boosting incomes ahead of elections have lost credibility
• Voters are unlikely to respond positively to similar measures again

Inflation Remains the Core Challenge

Tezkan stresses that the government must deliver real, not statistical, progress:

• Inflation must fall to single digits in practical terms
• Cost of living pressures must be genuinely reduced

However, he describes this goal as extremely difficult under current conditions.

Planned Wage Increases Seen as Insufficient

According to political rumors cited by Tezkan:

• Minimum wage earners may receive inflation adjustments plus an additional 20% raise
• Retirees could receive inflation-linked increases plus welfare supplements

Tezkan argues these measures would not be enough to satisfy voters.

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Foreign Investment Remains Elusive

The government’s economic strategy also hinges on attracting foreign capital.

Measures reportedly under consideration include:

• Tax cuts
• Zero taxation in transit trade
• Long-term tax exemptions

Tezkan characterizes this effort as an attempt to turn Istanbul into a hub similar to Dubai.

However, he notes that:

• Foreign investors prioritize legal certainty
• Concerns over rule of law remain a major obstacle

Uncertainty Around the PKK Issue

Another key factor is the ongoing process involving the PKK.

Tezkan highlights:

• Government claims that the process is progressing
• Ongoing demands from Abdullah Öcalan
• A wait-and-see stance from PKK leadership in Kandil

This suggests that the situation is more complex than official statements indicate.

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The Government’s Three Core Objectives

Tezkan summarizes what he sees as the ruling party’s three main goals for securing another term:

1. Bring Inflation Under Control

• Reduce inflation to single digits
• Offset cost of living pressures with wage increases

2. Attract Foreign Investment

• Transform Istanbul into a regional financial hub
• Create favorable conditions for international capital

3. Resolve the PKK Issue

• Achieve disarmament
• Maintain political stability through the election period

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