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Türkiye in a Multipolar World: Navigating the Shifting Global Order

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The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the end of bipolarity and ushered in a unipolar world order led by the United States. This era—coined the “unipolar moment” by political analyst Charles Krauthammer—saw the U.S. as the uncontested global hegemon. However, a series of geopolitical and economic disruptions in the 21st century—ranging from 9/11, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, the 2008 financial crisis, and the Arab Spring, to more recent events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war—have weakened U.S. dominance, allowing other powers to rise.

According to the Munich Security Report 2025, we are entering an era of “multipolarization”—a systemic shift where multiple influential global and regional powers are shaping the international landscape. While the U.S. and China remain the two dominant poles, other countries—including Russia, India, the European Union, and regional players such as Türkiye, Brazil, Nigeria, Malaysia, South Africa, and Iran—are expanding their geopolitical and economic influence, challenging the Western-centric order.

Türkiye’s Role in a Multipolar World

As a regional and middle power with strategic geographic positioning, Türkiye occupies a unique and increasingly pivotal place in this evolving multipolar structure. Although it benefits from the flexibility offered by a diversified global order, Türkiye’s foreign policy is becoming more complex and uncertain.

Historically, Turkish foreign policy has responded to global transformations in three main ways:

  1. Protecting the status quo—especially its borders and territorial sovereignty;

  2. Aligning with Western powers—notably the U.S. and European states;

  3. Balancing revisionist actors—by seeking support from other influential powers to counter threats.

A notable example was Türkiye’s strong rejection of Soviet territorial demands in 1945, prompting Ankara to seek alignment with the Western bloc during the Cold War.

Emerging Challenges to Turkish Foreign Policy

The shift toward multipolarity poses two core challenges for Türkiye’s traditional foreign policy doctrine.

1. Pressure on the Status Quo

The global trend toward territorial revisionism is growing. The Trump administration’s recognition of East Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, its tacit acceptance of Israeli control over Gaza and parts of Syria and Lebanon, and its dismissive stance on Crimea’s annexation signal a global retreat from defending established borders.

In this context, Türkiye’s consistent support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s statement calling Hamas “the forward defense line of Anatolia” highlight Ankara’s understanding that multipolarity may bring further instability to regional borders and norms.

2. Strained Western Alignment

Türkiye’s traditional orientation toward the West has weakened over the past decade, driven by repeated political and diplomatic disputes with the U.S. and EU. Today’s “West” is far less unified. While the U.S. under Trump adopted a confrontational stance toward China, the EU is preoccupied with countering Russia—sometimes independently of Washington.

Even if Türkiye attempted to realign with the Western bloc, it is unclear whether a cohesive Western foreign policy platform still exists.

Balancing Old and New Powers

One of the least visible but most important implications of multipolarity is the redefinition of Türkiye’s traditional balancing policy—a diplomatic approach rooted in Ottoman-era pragmatism.

Now, Türkiye must navigate a far more fragmented and competitive arena:

  • Balancing global powers like the U.S., China, and Russia;

  • Engaging with regional actors such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, often with competing interests.

Trump 2.0 and Strategic Recalibration

If Donald Trump returns to the White House, the pace of systemic transformation may accelerate. His criticism of NATO, desire for reduced U.S. commitment to Ukraine, and renewed protectionist trade policies (including tariffs under “America First”) could have profound effects:

  • NATO’s structure may evolve, creating greater security uncertainty for Türkiye, particularly in the Black Sea region.

  • The erosion of military aid to Ukraine could strengthen Russia’s position, forcing Türkiye to rethink its regional posture.

  • A resurgence in U.S. protectionism would complicate Türkiye’s integration into global value chains, especially in sectors like manufacturing and technology.

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