Türkiye–Armenia Normalization: Strategic Realignment in the South Caucasus

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Türkiye on June 20, 2025, is more than a symbolic diplomatic gesture—it marks a strategic recalibration in the South Caucasus. For Armenia, this move reflects a broader objective: escaping its geopolitical isolation, reducing dependence on Russia, accessing Turkish trade routes and ports, and orienting its economy and infrastructure toward Western integration.

Meanwhile, Türkiye seizes the opportunity to solidify its standing as a regional mediator. By actively promoting Türkiye–Armenia normalization, Ankara not only expands its influence in the South Caucasus but also signals a cooperative message to the EU and United States, strengthening its position as a stabilizing force.

Yet, this budding rapprochement is entangled in deeper geopolitical complexities. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made clear that the process hinges on Armenia’s progress in finalizing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and steps toward opening the Türkiye–Armenia border, which has remained closed since the 1990s. Critical infrastructure projects—like reopening the border and reviving the Araxes/Zangezur Corridor rail link—remain on hold, pending a breakthrough in the Yerevan–Baku peace process.

Türkiye’s Balancing Act and Regional Leverage

Erdoğan’s backing of Armenia–Azerbaijan negotiations during Pashinyan’s trip reflects a nuanced diplomatic strategy. Türkiye walks a dual path—sustaining its strategic bond with Baku, while also presenting itself as a regional peacemaker. This approach not only positions Ankara at the heart of the South Caucasus peace architecture, but also allows it to mediate without compromising its Pan-Turkic ties.

In contrast, Armenia is redefining its foreign policy trajectory. Pulling back from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), engaging more with the EU and the U.S., and asserting independence along its borders are all signs of strategic disengagement from Moscow. As Russia’s influence recedes, Türkiye fills the vacuum—pushing Moscow to adopt a more cooperative stance in regional affairs through mechanisms like the 3+3 platform.

Zangezur Corridor and Corridor Diplomacy

The Zangezur Corridor, connecting mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia, sits at the core of current negotiations. For Azerbaijan and Türkiye, the corridor represents a linchpin for regional connectivity. For Armenia, it carries fears of sovereignty compromise. During his visit, Pashinyan refrained from ceding ground on the corridor but indicated willingness to engage under Armenia’s constitutional framework.

Instead, Yerevan promotes its own “Crossroads of Peace” initiative, a vision for multimodal transit that remains under Armenian jurisdiction. The challenge for Pashinyan is balancing domestic political sensitivities with regional peace ambitions. Success hinges on Armenia’s ability to negotiate corridor access while avoiding perceptions of territorial concession.

Shifting Alliances and a New Regional Order

Pashinyan’s Türkiye visit is part of a broader westward pivot, complementing the U.S.–Armenia Strategic Partnership Charter signed earlier in January 2025 and ongoing efforts for EU integration. This reorientation signals Armenia’s attempt to diversify its alliances and take part in multilateral diplomacy, moving beyond the traditional Russia-centric security orbit.

Türkiye’s equidistant diplomacy—supporting Azerbaijan while engaging with Armenia—redefines Ankara’s role as a regional interlocutor, not merely a partisan player. This neutral stance strengthens its influence over both capitals and anchors its presence in a newly forming regional power equation.

At the same time, Yerevan’s disillusionment with Russia—intensified by Moscow’s failure to act during the 2020 and 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh escalations—adds urgency to Armenia’s pursuit of alternative security frameworks. The vacuum left by CSTO’s inaction is being filled by Western promises: visa liberalization, EU infrastructure funding, and U.S. diplomatic engagement.

However, this momentum remains fragile. If the EU and U.S. fail to follow through, Armenia risks facing domestic backlash, halted reforms, and another slide into isolation. Türkiye’s involvement provides a bridge to the West, and if managed carefully, can reshape not only Armenia’s geopolitical future but also the strategic map of the entire South Caucasus.