Turkey’s October Inflation: Historical Patterns Point to Persistent Price Pressure

Analysis by Alaattin Aktaş — adapted for PA Turkey English Newsportal

Early Signs Point to Around 3% Inflation, But October Has a History of Surprises

Economist and columnist Alaattin Aktaş argues that while it is still early to forecast Turkey’s October inflation, the consensus estimate hovers around 3%, consistent with seasonal patterns and past averages.

“The month is only two-thirds over, so it’s early to make a precise estimate,” Aktaş wrote. “But given that September inflation was 3.23%, many assume October will also exceed 3% — and they may not be wrong. Historically, October tends to deliver one of the highest monthly increases of the year.”

Although January has recently overtaken October as the month with the steepest price increases, data from 2005–2020 still show that October inflation averaged 2.03%, far above most months.

From 2021 Onward: A Shift in the Seasonal Balance

The turning point, Aktaş notes, came with the September 2021 interest rate cut, which destabilized inflation dynamics. Before then, monthly inflation tended to peak in October; after the policy shift, sharp increases appeared across various months.

In December 2021, inflation surged 13.58%, followed by 11.10% in January 2022, reflecting the lagged impact of the currency shock. Later, when the new economic team allowed the Turkish lira to depreciate in mid-2023, monthly CPI again spiked — 9.49% in July and 9.09% in August, the highest summer readings in decades.

Since then, January has consistently led monthly inflation rankings, with price rises of 6.65% in 2023, 6.70% in 2024, and 5.03% in 2025, making it the most inflationary month on average across 2005–2025.

October’s “Sticky Inflation” Persists

Despite fluctuations elsewhere, October’s “stickiness” has proven hard to break. Even during periods of double-digit inflation — including the 2023 summer months — October’s price rigidity has endured.

While this year’s October CPI outcome remains uncertain, historical data (2005–2024) confirm that October is the second-highest month for average monthly price growth, following January.

• Average monthly inflation (2005–2025): January 2.37%, October 2.24%.

This persistent pattern, Aktaş says, illustrates that seasonal effects — particularly in clothing and winter preparation — play a decisive role in sustaining October inflation.

The Role of Seasonality and Sector Breakdown

The October effect is largely driven by seasonal spending patterns, especially sharp price hikes in clothing and footwear, as households prepare for winter.

Reviewing data from the past three years (October 2022–2024), Aktaş finds that the average monthly CPI increase was 3.29%, but some categories rose much faster:

• Food: +4.21%

• Alcoholic beverages: +1.12%

• Clothing and footwear: +12.13%

• Housing: +4.34%

• Household goods: +2.93%

• Health: +2.44%

• Transportation: +0.49%

• Communication: +2.93%

• Recreation and culture: +1.38%

• Education: +0.33%

• Restaurants and hotels: +2.48%

• Other expenses: +2.33%

The data suggest that consumer prices in October remain structurally resistant to disinflation, regardless of policy interventions.

Outlook: High Base, Seasonal Pressure, and Economic Momentum

With year-end inflation expectations anchored near 60%, Aktaş concludes that October may again reinforce Turkey’s seasonal inflation rigidity.

He cautions that, unless domestic demand cools more visibly in the fourth quarter, monthly price gains near 3% could persist, delaying a clearer disinflation trend into 2026.

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