Turkey’s 2028 Elections: Opposition Weighs Imamoğlu, Yavaş as Erdoğan Pressure Builds

Although Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections are officially scheduled for spring 2028, political debate is heating up early. Mounting economic and political challenges have triggered speculation that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s administration may be forced to seek a renewed mandate much sooner than planned.

CHP’s Early Move to Nominate İmamoğlu

In anticipation of shifting dynamics, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) moved to position Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu as a presidential candidate before rumors of his arrest gained traction. The early nomination raised the political cost of detaining him and sparked widespread public mobilization inside and outside Turkey.

However, multiple legal proceedings and the controversial annulment of İmamoğlu’s university degree have thrown his eligibility into question. Under the Turkish constitution, presidential candidates must hold a university degree. Although İmamoğlu has appealed the annulment in administrative courts, he is currently barred from running.

Could Özgür Özel Step In?

If İmamoğlu’s candidacy becomes legally untenable, many observers speculate that CHP leader Özgür Özel could emerge as an alternative nominee. But such a development would likely benefit the ruling coalition, particularly if Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş also enters the race.

Two strong opposition candidates could split the anti-Erdoğan vote. To prevent that, Özel recently confirmed that if İmamoğlu is blocked, the opposition will unify behind Yavaş as the joint candidate.

Path to a Return to Parliamentary Rule?

If Mansur Yavaş wins the presidency and the opposition secures a majority in parliament, a constitutional reform could follow—aimed at restoring Turkey’s former parliamentary system. In that scenario, Yavaş would serve as a ceremonial head of state, while İmamoğlu could become prime minister—similar to the process that elevated Erdoğan to power in 2002 after his own legal obstacles were lifted.

Yavaş’s Strong Candidacy

Mansur Yavaş currently enjoys high approval ratings and leads Erdoğan by a wide margin in most opinion polls. His political background, which includes nationalist roots, has earned him support among voters who previously aligned with Erdoğan’s coalition. His performance as Ankara’s mayor is also widely seen as effective and pragmatic.

Still, Yavaş’s nationalist image may limit his appeal among Kurdish voters—who played a pivotal role in opposition victories during the 2023 and 2024 elections. However, recent efforts by the government to relaunch a peace process with the Kurds may already be drawing some Kurdish voters away from the opposition.

Opposition Unity Remains Essential

Ultimately, the success of the opposition’s electoral strategy depends on preserving cohesion between its three leading figures: Ekrem İmamoğlu, Mansur Yavaş, and Özgür Özel. Their continued unity will be vital in sustaining voter confidence and maintaining momentum toward change.

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