Turkey Eyes Return to F-35 Program Under Trump: Erdogan Signals Deal, U.S. Ambassador Optimistic

President Erdogan says F-35 jets will be delivered to Turkey “step by step” as diplomatic backchannel reopens; CAATSA sanctions may be lifted, possibly in exchange for Turkish concessions on Syria and S-400s.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed confidence that Turkey will be readmitted into the U.S. F-35 fighter jet program, citing a personal agreement with President Donald Trump. Speaking to reporters after returning from a summit in Azerbaijan, Erdogan stated:

“I believe Mr. Trump will honor the agreement we made. I think the F-35s will be delivered to Turkey step by step during his term.”

Turkey was officially removed from the F-35 program in 2019, following its controversial purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system—an acquisition that triggered sanctions under the CAATSA law and strained relations with Washington and NATO allies.

U.S. Ambassador Signals Path to Resolution

The prospects for resolution appear to be improving. Tom Barrack, the U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and a close Trump confidant, recently told Anadolu Agency that a solution to the five-year standoff may be “within reach by the end of the year.”

Barrack indicated that both governments were engaged in efforts to “rebuild strategic alignment”, and that Congress may support a “realistic agreement” to lift CAATSA restrictions and allow Turkey’s reentry into the fifth-generation fighter program.

“F-35, F-16, S-400, sanctions, tariffs—enough. These issues have been discussed for years. Congress wants to revisit the matter,” Barrack said, adding that a planned Trump-Erdogan meeting could accelerate a deal.

Potential Deal: Turkey May Concede on S-400s

Sources suggest that Turkey may abandon or relocate its S-400 missile batteries as part of a broader geopolitical trade-off, potentially linked to U.S.-led efforts to normalize ties between Syria and Israel.

Washington is said to be exploring a regional bargain where Erdogan helps facilitate Syria’s integration into a normalization track with Israel—specifically with the Ahmed al-Sharaa regime—in return for Turkey’s reentry into the F-35 program.

Reports also indicate that Turkey may transfer its S-400 systems to Syria, easing U.S. and Israeli security concerns and allowing Ankara to restore ties with Western defense institutions.

Erdogan: “Turkey Is Not a Threat to Its Neighbors”

Erdogan downplayed concerns raised by Greece and Israel over Turkey’s potential reacquisition of stealth fighters:

“Greece’s concerns about our defense steps are groundless and meaningless,” he said. “Turkey is not a threat to any country that does not threaten our security or act with hostility.”

Greece and Israel have reportedly lobbied U.S. officials to delay or block the delivery of F-35s to Ankara. However, multiple sources, including a senior Greek official speaking to Globes, have acknowledged that “it is only a matter of time before Turkey is brought back into the project.”

Domestic Messaging: Erdogan Begins S-400 Reversal Narrative

Erdogan has already begun preparing Turkish public opinion for a possible shift away from the S-400s. Citing the recent Israel-Iran conflict and weaknesses in Turkish air defense, he stated:

“Our society now understands that the S-400s do not fully meet our national needs. We must build a layered air defense system.”

Such statements may be part of a coordinated strategy to justify a retreat from Russian systems while reclaiming Turkey’s role in Western defense platforms.

Implications for Turkey’s Domestic Defense Industry

A return to the F-35 program could undermine momentum behind Turkey’s domestic fighter jet project, the fifth-generation KAAN aircraft, which has received significant state funding. With the KAAN expected to become operational in the next decade, questions may arise over continued investment if U.S.-made F-35s enter Turkish service.

Strategic Stakes at Incirlik and Kurecik

The U.S. military continues to rely on Turkish facilities such as the Incirlik Air Base—which hosts nuclear weapons—and the Kurecik radar installation, which is believed to have supported Israeli defense operations.
A long-term impasse over the F-35 and S-400 could disrupt these strategic sites. Conversely, a compromise could reinvigorate NATO’s southern flank and boost Washington’s influence in regional realignments.

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