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SAMEKS PMI Signals Persistent Weakness in Turkish Economy as Demand Cools in Q2

sameks-may2025

The economic slowdown in Turkey’s real sector continued in May 2025, according to the latest SAMEKS data. Both the manufacturing and services sectors remained below the 50-point reference threshold, signaling ongoing contraction.

Composite Index Edges Up but Remains Below Threshold

The seasonally and calendar-adjusted SAMEKS Composite Index rose slightly by 0.4 points in May to 46.2, up from 45.8 in April. However, the index remained below the neutral 50 mark, reinforcing concerns about waning economic momentum.

Services Sector Stalls at 48.0, Job Market Still Weak

 

The SAMEKS Services Sector Index showed no monthly change, holding steady at 48.0, reflecting ongoing stagnation.

  • Input purchases declined by 1.2 points to 50.1, just above the reference level.

  • Final goods inventories dropped by 1.3 points to 48.0.

  • Supplier delivery times fell by 1.5 points to 45.4.

  • Business volume shrank by 3.2 points to 43.1 — well below the threshold.

  • The employment sub-index decreased marginally by 0.2 points to 47.6, signaling continued softness in labor demand.

The services sector remains under pressure, with weak demand and hiring contraction persisting into Q2.

Manufacturing Sector Dips to Lowest Level of 2025

The SAMEKS Manufacturing Sector Index declined by 0.4 points to 43.8, the lowest reading so far in 2025.

  • New orders plummeted by 4.8 points to 38.4 — the sharpest monthly decline and the main driver of the overall index drop.

  • Input purchases fell by 4.1 points to 48.4, marking the first decline since September 2024.

  • Despite a 3.9-point rise in production, it remained at a subdued 43.3.

  • Final goods inventory dropped 5.6 points to 45.4.

  • A positive note came from supplier delivery times, which improved by 5.1 points to 50.0.

  • Employment increased by 0.6 points but remained low at 43.5, indicating ongoing labor market weakness.

Taken together, these indicators point to a soft start to Q2 for Turkey’s industrial sector.

Analysis: Tight Monetary Policy Continues to Weigh on Demand

After falling below the 50-point line in April, the SAMEKS Composite Index failed to recover in May, signaling that the real economy remains sluggish.

  • The decline in both input purchases and new orders reflects tight financial conditions and weakened domestic demand caused by aggressive monetary tightening.

  • Access to financing remains limited, amplifying the slowdown in economic activity.

  • The contraction in employment across both sectors further confirms the fragile state of the economy.

These figures suggest that Turkey’s economy is struggling to regain momentum in the second quarter of 2025.

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