Morning Report: Borsa Istanbul Eyes 10,500 Resistance as Investors Await Central Bank Rate Decision

The BIST 100 index is attempting to regain momentum above the 10,400 support level ahead of Thursday’s Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) policy decision. The lira hovers near 42 per dollar, while gold steadies after a sharp correction.

BIST 100: 10,500 Resistance Key for a New Uptrend

The Borsa Istanbul (BIST 100) is expected to open slightly higher on Wednesday as short-term momentum improves.
After rebounding from the 10,400 support, the index is once again testing the 10,500 resistance level — a key threshold that could mark the start of a new upward trend if decisively broken.

Analysts note that a sustained move above 10,500 would complete the short-term descending channel breakout, paving the way toward 10,560 and 10,600 resistance targets.
For short-term traders, the 10,400 zone remains a buy-on-dips area, while 10,260 stands as major support.

In the banking index, sentiment remains strong above 13,600, with 14,000 serving as the next key resistance.

Bond Market: Yields Edge Higher, CDS at 263

Turkey’s government bond yields rose slightly on Tuesday.
The benchmark two-year bond yield climbed to 40.62%, while the 10-year yield reached 32.53%.
In the U.S., Treasury yields retreated after a brief rebound, as safe-haven demand resurfaced amid renewed trade tensions.

In Turkey, the benchmark yield’s 41.00% level and the 10-year’s 33.00% are now key reference points.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s 5-year CDS stands stable around 263 basis points, reflecting a cautious but steady risk perception.

CBRT Rate Decision in Focus

Markets are fixated on the Central Bank of Turkey’s policy meeting on Thursday.
After launching an easing cycle in July and continuing with a 250-basis-point cut in September, the CBRT faces a tougher call this month following the September inflation surprise, which came in at 3.2% month-on-month, pushing annual inflation up to 33.3% — the first increase since May 2024.

The data has raised expectations that the CBRT may pause its rate cuts in October.
Currently, the policy rate stands at 40.50%, with the overnight borrowing rate at 39.00% and lending rate at 43.50%.
Market consensus expects a 100-basis-point cut, lowering the benchmark to 39.50%, though some analysts believe a pause is equally possible.

USD/TRY: 42.00 Psychological Level in Sight

Emerging-market currencies lost ground against the dollar on Tuesday, while the Turkish lira continued its gradual weakening trend, trading between 41.90 and 42.00.

The 42.00 mark is seen as a psychological resistance for the pair, followed by 42.10 as the next target.
Support levels stand at 41.90 and 41.80.
A sustained move above 42.00 could reinforce short-term bullish momentum for the dollar.

EUR/USD: Consolidation Between 1.1540–1.1650

The EUR/USD pair remains confined within a narrow range, trading between 1.1540 and 1.1650.
After rebounding from 1.1540 support, the euro briefly tested above 1.1650 but failed to sustain momentum.

Analysts say holding above 1.1650 could strengthen the short-term outlook, while a decisive break above 1.17 would confirm a medium-term reversal.
On the downside, 1.16 and 1.1540 remain key supports for the pair.

Gold: Correction After Record Highs Near $4,382

After hitting a record high of $4,382 per ounce, gold prices saw a steep correction amid profit-taking.
The move came even as U.S. President Donald Trump raised tariffs on China from 100% to 155%, a step that initially bolstered safe-haven demand.

Gold found support around the $4,000 level, now seen as a major short-term base.
As long as prices hold above this mark, technical analysts see room for a rebound toward $4,180–$4,200.

In Turkey, gram gold followed global trends, retreating from ₺5,900 to around ₺5,400.
The ₺5,400 level now acts as strong support, while ₺5,650 is viewed as the first recovery target.
After months of strong performance, the gold market has entered a more volatile phase, prompting investors to stay cautious.

Global Developments

• Trump raised tariffs on China from 100% to 155%, escalating trade tensions.

• Gold prices entered a correction phase after record-breaking gains.

• ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to speak later today.

• Borsa Istanbul needs to close above 10,500 to confirm the start of a sustained uptrend.

Bottom Line: Cautious Optimism Ahead of CBRT Decision

While the short-term technical outlook for Turkish equities has improved, investor focus remains on domestic monetary policy and political developments.
A sustained move above 10,500 on the BIST 100 could signal a return of bullish momentum, but lingering inflation risks and global volatility suggest that investors will remain cautiously optimistic heading into the CBRT meeting.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions. Articles in our website may not necessarily represent the view of our editorial board or count as endorsement.

Follow our English-language videos @ REAL TURKEY: YouTube
Twitter: @AtillaEng
Facebook: Real Turkey Channel