June Polls Show CHP Leading Nationally as Support for MHP and AKP Declines

A series of recent opinion polls across Turkey suggest a notable shift in the political landscape, with the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) maintaining a clear lead, while support for the ruling AKP and its nationalist ally MHP continues to erode. Amid growing public dissatisfaction and calls for early elections, pollsters are detecting rising momentum for the opposition.

SER-AR Poll: CHP Solidifies Lead, MHP Falls Below Threshold

According to the latest poll conducted by SER-AR Research on June 10–11, 2025, across 26 provinces and involving 2,035 respondents, the CHP remains the leading political party with 34.9% support. The AKP trails behind at 29.4%.

Notably, the MHP, a key partner in the ruling coalition, polled at just 6.9%, slipping below Turkey’s 7% parliamentary threshold for the first time. Meanwhile, the pro-Kurdish DEM Party captured 10.1% of the vote.

Other parties’ standings in the SER-AR survey were as follows:

• Victory Party (Zafer Partisi): 6.1%

• New Welfare Party (YRP): 4.7%

• Good Party (İYİ Parti): 4.2%

• Workers’ Party of Turkey (TİP): 1.4%

• Others: 2.3%

Taken together, the ruling bloc—comprising the AKP and MHP—commands only 36.3% of the vote. Even with additional alliances, they appear unable to surpass the symbolic 50% mark needed for comfortable control in a general election.

ORC Poll: CHP Ahead in Major Cities, AKP Losing Ground

Another poll, conducted by ORC Research between June 8–10 in five key metropolitan areas, shows the CHP widening its lead over the AKP in major urban centers:

• İzmir: CHP 44.5% | AKP 21.8%

• Antalya: CHP 37.8% | AKP 26.1%

• Mersin: CHP 35.3% | AKP 22.4%

• Adana: CHP 32.5% | AKP 27.4%

• Malatya: AKP 37.1% | CHP 25.0%

While the AKP remains ahead in Malatya, the gap has narrowed dramatically—from 40 points in the 2023 elections to just 12 points in the latest survey. In Adana, where the AKP led in 2023, the CHP is now in first place.

Bulgu Poll: CHP and AKP Neck-and-Neck Nationally

A third survey, conducted by Bulgu Research with 1,837 participants, highlighted a large bloc of undecided voters—16.2%. Among decided voters, CHP received 28%, narrowly edging out the AKP at 27.5%.

After redistributing undecided votes proportionally, the revised results were:

• CHP: 33.5%

• AKP: 32.8%

• DEM Party: 9.5%

• İYİ Parti: 9.2%

• MHP: 7.1%

• Victory Party: 2.4%

• YRP: 1.3%

• Memleket Party: 1.2%

• Others: <1%

These findings continue to reflect a tightening political contest, with the CHP maintaining a slim but consistent lead.

Two-Thirds of Voters Want Early Elections

Perhaps most striking, SER-AR’s survey revealed a strong public appetite for early elections. When asked if an early general election should be held within the next year:

• Yes: 67.25%

• No: 27.5%

• Undecided: 5.25%

These numbers signal mounting frustration with the current government, as economic challenges, inflation, and governance concerns deepen.

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