Damascus-SDF Agreement at a Crossroads: Fragile Progress, Deep Challenges

Two months after Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa and SDF Commander-in-Chief Mazloum Abdi signed a historic agreement to integrate SDF structures into the Syrian state, progress remains cautious and uneven. The accord, hailed internationally as a potential milestone toward national reconciliation, has delivered early results in security coordination and local reintegration — yet deep disputes and mutual mistrust threaten to stall or even unravel the process.

Initial Implementation: Calm and Coordination

In the immediate aftermath of the March 10 agreement, both sides demonstrated political will. A cease-fire largely held, and previously isolated Kurdish-majority neighborhoods in Aleppo began rejoining the state’s administrative framework. Joint committees were established to manage security, services, and the integration of SDF fighters into the Syrian army. Notably, technical discussions progressed on forming a joint command structure, with Damascus signaling openness to preserving specialized SDF units, particularly in counterterrorism.

Early Flashpoints: Tishreen Dam and Detainees

However, challenges quickly emerged. A critical flashpoint has been the Tishreen Dam in eastern Aleppo. While the agreement called for swift state control over such infrastructure, the SDF hesitated, citing security concerns and demanding guarantees. DAANES officials insisted on retaining administrative authority over dam personnel, fearing the handover would lead to a Syrian army encirclement of Ayn al-Arab (Kobani).

Similarly, although detainee exchanges began, Damascus accuses DAANES of withholding prisoner lists. Meanwhile, reports surfaced that the SDF continued fortifying positions — a violation of the cease-fire terms, according to Syrian officials.

Decentralization: The Constitutional Challenge

Politically, the thorniest issue is decentralization. The agreement promises constitutional guarantees for Kurdish rights, but there is a gap between DAANES’s vision of “democratic local governance” and Damascus’ red lines against federalism. An intra-Kurdish conference in Qamishli intensified these tensions, pushing for decentralization as a constitutional principle — drawing sharp criticism from the presidency.

Despite public affirmations of unity, the government remains firm against “separatist practices.” The real test will be how these opposing visions are reconciled in the drafting of a new or interim constitution.

SDF Internal Fractures: PKK Influence vs. Arab Demands

Internally, the SDF itself faces deep fissures. A senior Arab commander from Deir ez-Zor acknowledged that PKK-linked cadres from Qandil have long influenced SDF decision-making. Though Öcalan’s recent call for disarmament has shifted dynamics, hardline PKK elements still resist moves perceived as diminishing their role — such as the Tishreen Dam handover.

Conversely, Arab leaders within the SDF, and many moderate Kurdish factions, strongly support the agreement. They argue that integration with the Syrian state is vital to prevent Turkish intervention and ensure better governance. They also demand equitable representation in future political and military structures.

Public Discontent and Civil Society Exclusion

On the ground, public dissatisfaction simmers — especially among Arab communities in the Jazira region. Reports of child conscription, arbitrary arrests, and monopolization of resources by DAANES have deepened mistrust. Many residents now view Damascus as a potential guarantor of order and services. The exclusion of civil society actors — tribal leaders, activists, and local NGOs — from negotiations also raises questions about the process’s legitimacy and sustainability.

Regional Actors: Turkey and the U.S.

Turkey has cautiously supported the agreement but warned against any empowerment of PKK-affiliated groups. Ankara demands a full dismantling of those networks and continues drone strikes against key figures. Damascus has promised to exclude non-Syrian PKK elements from integration efforts, but mutual suspicion persists. DAANES fears that Turkish-Syrian convergence could lead to a security deal at its expense.

The U.S., meanwhile, has adopted a reserved stance. While still backing the SDF, Washington has not objected to its cooperation with Damascus — especially as long as Iranian influence remains contained. The U.S. withdrawal from Deir ez-Zor has opened space for further government-SDF dialogue, suggesting that Washington may play a behind-the-scenes role in nudging both parties toward implementation.

Future Scenarios: Two Diverging Paths

Optimistically, the agreement could evolve into full integration by year’s end, involving joint local governance, unified security forces, and constitutional reforms. This would require ongoing negotiation, compromises on decentralization, and international mediation — particularly by the U.S. and regional powers.

The pessimistic outcome envisions renewed breakdown: further delays in key handovers, provocations by PKK hardliners, or Turkish military action could freeze or collapse the process. Historical precedents — from Iraq’s PMF to Sudan’s Naivasha Agreement — offer sobering lessons about the fragility of such transitions.

Conclusion: Between Hope and Hesitation

For now, both Damascus and the SDF appear committed — if cautiously — to pursuing the deal. Yet the path ahead is fraught with political, military, and social hurdles. The agreement remains Syria’s best opportunity in years for durable national reintegration. But success depends not just on state-level coordination, but on broad-based inclusion, regional alignment, and the rebuilding of public trust.

This article is a summary of original analysis by Syrian journalist and researcher Samer al-Ahmed. Follow him on Twitter @sameralahmadnq.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions. Articles in our website may not necessarily represent the view of our editorial board or count as endorsement. Make sure links are live

Follow our English language YouTube videos @ REAL TURKEY: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKpFJB4GFiNkhmpVZQ_d9Rg
And content at Twitter: @AtillaEng