Conservative Columnist: Two Tough Problems for Erdoğan

By Ahmet Taşgetiren, Islamist-conservative columnist at Karar

The government must realize that it has reached a dead end — especially after the punch thrown at Özgür Özel. The political operation targeting İmamoğlu, whatever mind it came from, had already backed Erdoğan into a narrow political corner. The attack on Özel has only deepened that narrowness.

At the core of this situation lies Erdoğan’s political future. It’s evident that Erdoğan wants to run for a third — or by some calculations, a fourth — presidential term. But there are two major obstacles in his way:

Ahmet Tasgetiren

The constitutional restriction.

The risk of losing.

To bypass the constitutional barrier, Erdoğan either needs to push for a constitutional amendment in parliament — which requires at least 360 votes, and even then risks losing a referendum — or he must convince opposition parties to agree to snap elections, where another term becomes legally possible. The CHP is opposed, and any negotiations with the pro-Kurdish DEM Party would inevitably involve this issue.

It seems Erdoğan has concluded that this path might work. The process is underway.

But suppose he does become a candidate — is his re-election guaranteed?

That once looked like a certainty — until Ekrem İmamoğlu’s star began to rise. Whether it’s luck or political fate, İmamoğlu has clearly captured public attention for some time now.

Perhaps his appeal has grown precisely because he’s gone head-to-head with Erdoğan, the undisputed star of Turkish politics for 22 years. Back in 2019, when Erdoğan personally campaigned against him and even had the Istanbul election annulled, İmamoğlu still won. The same happened in 2024.

These direct confrontations elevated İmamoğlu to a “presidential-tier” political figure.

Then came the offensive beginning on March 18 with the cancellation of his diploma and escalating on March 19 with detention and arrest — a campaign that suggested Erdoğan now aims to eliminate his rival not at the ballot box, but through the tools of executive power.

Involving the judiciary inevitably triggered international criticism for violating the principle of judicial independence and impartiality.

The world has seen many instances of those in power using state mechanisms to eliminate challengers. This is especially common in countries lacking democratic norms, where dominant political actors tend to draw criticism.

Think about it: “Let Erdoğan run for president a third time, but make sure there’s no strong candidate who could beat him.”

A dream scenario for Erdoğan…

If this operation had succeeded in humiliating, discrediting, or sidelining İmamoğlu — and that clearly was the intent — the path would be wide open for Erdoğan. The pro-government media picked up the mission, focusing heavily on “corruption” themes since March 19. I read the general psychology there as, “Well, we ran the municipalities for years and did these things — surely they did too.” Had İmamoğlu been crushed, that would have been the end of it.

But things didn’t go as planned. Özgür Özel, the CHP leader, took on an unexpected role — almost as if making a political blood pact with İmamoğlu. He picked up the banner and has rallied around İmamoğlu’s cause, making “Silivri Prison” a symbol of political repression, holding rallies twice a week, and locking the national agenda onto this issue.

Since March 18–19, even the economy has been sidelined. Erdoğan, once the sole setter of the political agenda, now seems to have lost control of the narrative.

He held rallies in Yozgat and Konya, but that wasn’t the headline anymore.

One thing is certain: everywhere Erdoğan travels, foreign journalists will ask about the İmamoğlu affair. No matter how much the questions are screened, one tough one will always get through.

Even if Erdoğan manages to secure the right to run, can he guarantee a beatable opponent?

It’s reasonable to assume Erdoğan wants to finish his political career with one final election victory. But politics doesn’t always play along, which raises a series of thorny questions:

Has İmamoğlu been permanently disqualified due to the diploma issue? Could other legal files lead to a political ban?

Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, is also a formidable candidate — in some polls, even more so than İmamoğlu. Head-to-head surveys suggest Yavaş could beat Erdoğan as well.

So is there a “Mansur Yavaş file” waiting in the wings too?

Which rival would be most suitable to ensure Erdoğan’s re-election?

That such a question is even being asked signals trouble — both for Erdoğan and for Turkish democracy.

And just as this crisis unfolds — the punch thrown at Özgür Özel exploded to the scene. Sabah columnist Okan Müderrisoğlu has long hinted at “other centers of calculation” being at play behind the scenes.

Özel has taken on a surprising role as CHP leader: he’s elevating another name — İmamoğlu — and campaigning alongside him across the country. This isn’t something we often see in politics. Perhaps the ruling party doesn’t quite know what to make of it either.

I wonder when President Erdoğan, as head of state, will initiate dialogue with Özgür Özel. Recognizing that March 18–19 backfired shouldn’t be so hard.

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