Arrests of CHP Mayors Fail to Shift Public Opinion, Polls Show

A wave of legal action against opposition mayors in Turkey appears to be backfiring, as recent polls show growing support for the main opposition CHP. Surveys by Gündemar, SONAR, and SER-AR indicate that a majority of citizens view the arrests as politically motivated. Meanwhile, the CHP maintains its lead over the ruling AKP.
Nationwide Survey: Majority Say Arrests Are Politically Motivated
A new survey by Gündemar Research asked Turkish citizens what they thought about the arrests of Ekrem İmamoğlu and other CHP-affiliated mayors. Over 54% of respondents described the arrests as unjust and politically driven, while only 18% viewed them as legitimate.
When asked whether similar legal action would be taken if corruption allegations were made against AKP mayors, only 22% believed it would, while 60% said no, pointing to a widespread perception of judicial double standards.
CHP Continues to Lead Despite Legal Pressure
According to Gündemar, the CHP’s vote share stands at 34.1%, ahead of the AKP’s 30.8%. This finding was echoed by a SONAR poll, which showed CHP at 36.2%, widening its lead over AKP at 30.9%. CHP’s upward trend has persisted, despite intensifying pressure, including judicial attempts to annul party congress decisions and detain additional mayors.
Analysts suggest that CHP’s real public support may be even higher, as fear and repression often lead voters to conceal their true preferences—a pattern also observed in authoritarian Latin American regimes.
Political scientist Elizabeth J. Zechmeister of Vanderbilt University has noted that “in contexts where political expression is monitored or punished, survey respondents may strategically misreport their support for opposition parties.”
57% Say Corruption Investigations Are a Political Smokescreen
In an article titled “Why Doesn’t the Public Trust Anti-Corruption Claims?”, columnist Akif Beki highlighted a PanoramaTR survey from June showing that only 35% of citizens believe the corruption probes against CHP municipalities are genuine. 57% say the real motive is to apply political pressure on the opposition.
Beki writes:
“The government fails to persuade the public that these operations are legal. Instead, the argument collapses under its own contradictions. If İmamoğlu hadn’t run for president, would he have been arrested? That admission alone destroys the government’s case.”
Metropoll: CHP Base Supports Özgür Özel, AKP Base Prefers Kılıçdaroğlu
A Metropoll survey conducted in June found that 79.4% of CHP voters prefer party leader Özgür Özel, while only 8.1% favor former chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Interestingly, voters from the AKP (40.3%) and MHP (51.6%) favor Kılıçdaroğlu, suggesting strategic preferences from government supporters.
SER-AR July Poll: CHP Still Ahead, Economy Remains Top Concern
The July 2025 SER-AR poll places CHP at 33.2%, narrowly ahead of AKP at 31.8%. DEM Party follows with 10.5%, while MHP holds 7.7%, Zafer Party 5.1%, and Yeniden Refah 4.4%.
Much of CHP’s rise is attributed to former İYİ Party voters returning. In 2023, many voters had defected to Meral Akşener’s party; now, 55–65% have switched back to the CHP, especially in major cities.
The drop in voter turnout also played a critical role in the March 2024 local elections. While turnout was 86% in May 2023, it fell to 78% in 2024. Data suggests that a large portion of non-voters came from the ruling coalition’s base, enabling CHP to secure more representation with fewer votes.
Presidential Race: İmamoğlu and Yavaş Lead Against Erdoğan
SER-AR also tested presidential matchups. If the election were held today:
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Ekrem İmamoğlu would receive 45.75%, ahead of President Erdoğan at 41.75%
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Mansur Yavaş would fare even better, scoring 48.25% to Erdoğan’s 41%
These results show that the opposition continues to command a lead in direct presidential races.
Economy Dominates Voter Concerns
Across all surveys, the economy remains the top concern, with 61% of respondents citing inflation and the cost of living as the country’s primary problem. However, many also feel that politicians aren’t addressing economic issues adequately, further widening the gap between voters and political discourse.
Undecided Voters Mostly from Ruling Coalition’s Base
Undecided voters largely comprise former AKP-MHP supporters, followed by younger voters aged 18–30 who are deeply affected by economic pressures. Their political leanings may shape the outcome of future elections.
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