Global Banks Raise Year-End USD/TRY Forecasts Amid Inflation and Policy Uncertainty

As high inflation, tight monetary policies, and persistent economic uncertainty continue to erode the value of the Turkish lira, major global banks have revised their year-end USD/TRY forecasts upward, reflecting growing concern over Türkiye’s financial trajectory.

Global Banks Adjust Dollar/Lira Projections

With the dollar-to-lira exchange rate fluctuating near the 39 TL mark, market watchers and investors are closely tracking updated projections from top global financial institutions. Here are the latest 2024 year-end USD/TRY estimates:

• Deutsche Bank: 48.33 TL

• UBS: 45.33 TL

• Goldman Sachs: 45.00 TL

• Citigroup: 44.88 TL

• Bank of America (BofA): 43.83 TL

• JPMorgan: 43.50 TL

These figures indicate an upward revision across the board, with some banks projecting a nearly 25% increase from current levels by year-end.

Exchange Rate Hovers at 39 TL as Volatility Builds

After closing at 38.89 TL yesterday, the USD/TRY rate climbed to 39.06 TL today before stabilizing around the 39.00 TL range. Market volatility remains elevated as investors anticipate potential policy adjustments and macroeconomic developments in the coming months.

The sharp revisions by global banks signal rising concerns over Türkiye’s currency depreciation, inflation trajectory, and the potential impact of delayed rate cuts or further fiscal tightening.