COMMENTARY: What Happened to Turkey’s Peace Process?

Turkey’s Peace Process has been put on ice pending the outcome of the Iran War. To recall: instead of disarming, as its leader Abdullah Öcalan had ordered, the PKK transferred its military assets to fight the Revolutionary Guard. In an environment where polls show deep mistrust among voters toward Öcalan and the PKK, advancing the Kurdish Peace Process would be political suicide for President Erdoğan.

PKK/PJAK is Alive and Well in Iran

The past week (April 18–25, 2026) witnessed a serious escalation of clashes between the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and the PJAK/CPFIK coalition on Iran’s western borders. Current reports from the region indicate that the conflict has evolved beyond “hit-and-run” tactics into an effort to seize strategic points.

Critical developments over the last 7 days:

• Hot Contact in Ilam and Kermanshah (April 20–22): Early in the week, at least four soldiers were reported killed in an attack on an IRGC logistics convoy in Ilam province. Immediately following this, news reached agencies of PJAK snipers putting high-altitude outposts under pressure in the Kermanshah countryside. The IRGC retaliated by deploying heavy artillery batteries to the region.

• Cross-Border Drone Operations (April 23): Within the last 48 hours, the Iranian military targeted PJAK shelters in the Pirmam and Qandil regions of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) with kamikaze UAVs (Shahed series). While PJAK claimed civilian settlements were damaged, the Tehran administration maintained that “terrorist nests” were destroyed.

• CPFIK Calls for “Total Resistance” (April 24): Yesterday, the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan (CPFIK), which includes PJAK, issued a declaration calling on Kurdish soldiers within the Revolutionary Guard to “turn their weapons against regime forces.” The coalition explicitly stated they view Iran’s external tensions with Israel and the US as a “window of opportunity.”

Current Military Situation

Analysis: Data from the last week shows that PJAK is not merely remaining on the defensive; they are attempting to open new internal fronts by exploiting Iran’s preoccupation with external pressures. Specifically, the attacks in Ilam indicate that the group has expanded its operational range.

Government View: No Progress Beyond Symbolic Disarmament

The Director of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MİT), Ibrahim Kalın, has briefed officials from Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party on the “Terror-Free Turkey” process. AK Party sources told the Türkiye daily that no meaningful progress has been made beyond “symbolic disarmament.”

The report noted that the Iran war has introduced a new complicating factor, with the PKK entering what sources described as “different expectations and movements” that have delayed the legal reform phase.

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Only Symbolic Disarmament, No Concrete Steps

Sources confirmed that MİT Director Kalın established that “no noteworthy new development beyond symbolic disarmament had occurred in the field.”

“The organization has not disarmed. The organization still exists. How are we supposed to pass a law in this situation?” sources quoted in the report said. “Law is built on material reality. Right now, there is no material reality indicating that weapons have been laid down. The Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) wants a legal text written on assumptions and uncertainties. That cannot happen.”

AKP’s Internal Debate: There is No Going Back, but the Mountain is Too Steep to Climb

Since October 1, 2024, Turkey has been debating a new solution process. While the process gained momentum with messages from Öcalan, the expected first stage—the PKK dissolving itself—has stalled.

According to AK Party insiders, the blockage in the process is working against them. “We are talking about holding early elections in a year. How will we pass this election decision? We cannot get results without DEM Party support,” party officials noted. While some believe legislation should only follow verified disarmament, others argue for passing laws that include disarmament as a prerequisite. Regardless, the consensus within the party is that “there is no returning from this path.”

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Erdoğan’s Thorny Dilemma

Erdoğan needs the pro-Kurdish DEM Party votes to regain eligibility, either via snap elections or a new Constitution. However, the AKP-MHP alliance lacks the votes to achieve either path alone. Despite Öcalan’s friendly relations with the AKP, the DEM Party and the PKK have minds of their own. It would be naive to expect their congresspeople to vote for another term for Erdoğan unless the Peace Process reaches a “point of no return.”

Furthermore, MHP leader Bahçeli remains the undeterred champion of the process. Abandoning it now risks the collapse of the AKP-MHP alliance, meaning Bahceli  may choose to abandon the Peace Process or sacrifice the partnership with AKP to appease the angry constituency.

Erdoğan has a few ways to overcome these interlocked conundrums (conandra?):

1. Political Bribes: Incentivizing members of smaller center-right parties like DEVA and Gelecek to switch to the AKP. However, this is costly, as newcomers will demand safe seats and financial incentives.

2. The “Kılıçdaroğlu” Gambit: Ordering the judiciary to facilitate the return of former chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu to the head of the CHP. Unlike current leader Özgür Özel, Kılıçdaroğlu might be amenable to a deal for early elections in return for guarantees that the judiciary will stop harassing his party.

This is why experts are suddenly bringing up snap elections in 2027. Erdoğan is running out of time and needs painful deals to remain eligible. Let me close with a final question: could he instead order the Grand Assembly to defer elections beyond 2028 by arguing that Israel poses a military threat to Turkey? That decision requires only a simple majority of deputies present—and then, Bob is Erdoğan’s uncle.

Atilla Yesilada, PA Turkey newsdesk

Sources:  Cumhuriyet, Nefes, Gemini, Turkey Today