Polls Show CHP Overtaking AKP in Both Parliamentary and Presidential Races

A  series of new surveys released by three major research companies suggest the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has pulled ahead of the ruling AKP in parliamentary voting intentions, while Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş lead President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan comfortably in prospective run-off matchups.

Gündemar survey: Opposition leads in presidential run-off scenarios

Gündemar Research conducted a nationwide poll between 23–29 November across 60 provinces with 2,230 respondents. The results indicate a widening gap between CHP and AKP in both general and presidential election scenarios.

Participants were asked how they would vote if a presidential run-off were held this Sunday between Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Ekrem İmamoğlu.
59.85% chose İmamoğlu, while 40.15% opted for Erdoğan.

In a second scenario featuring Mansur Yavaş against Erdoğan, the gap widened further.
62.43% of respondents said they would vote for Yavaş, compared with 37.57% for Erdoğan.

CHP holds strong lead in party preferences

When asked which party they would support if parliamentary elections were held today, respondents gave the following distribution:

• CHP: 35.91%

• AKP: 28.50%

• DEM Party: 8.21%

• Victory Party: 5.69%

• MHP: 5.04%

• Good Party: 5.01%

• Anahtar Party: 4.48%

• YRP: 3.65%

• Other: 2.36%

• TİP: 1.15%

The poll suggests a clear lead for CHP as the country approaches a new election cycle.

THEMIS poll: CHP ahead by 6.5 points after undecideds distributed

A separate survey by THEMIS Research, conducted between 18–27 November in 15 provinces using the CATI method, also found CHP emerging as the largest party.

According to figures reported by Haber3, when undecided voters are distributed, CHP leads AKP by 6.5 percentage points in the question:
“If a general election were held today, which party would you vote for?”

DEM Party followed the two major parties, while the Victory Party ranked fourth. The Good Party placed fifth, and MHP—falling to 4.7%—slipped to sixth position.

Political identity and public concerns

When asked how they would define their political orientation, 25.9% of respondents identified themselves as Atatürkists, the largest single category.

On the question of the country’s most pressing issue, cost of living and inflation ranked first, followed by concerns over justice, the legal system, and the rule of law.

A striking finding emerged on perceptions of the judiciary.
In response to “Do you think the legal system delivers fair rulings?”, 59.6% said “Not at all.”

THEMIS reported a margin of error of ±2.2 and released the professional distribution of respondents.

ORC December poll: AKP edges CHP, but race remains tight

A third survey, published by ORC Research, examined nationwide voting sentiment between 28 November and 1 December 2025.
The face-to-face poll, conducted in 26 provinces with 2,560 participants, asked respondents how they would vote if a general election were held this Sunday.

Results were as follows:

• AKP: 33.2%

• CHP: 31.9%

• DEM Party: 7.9%

• MHP: 6.8%

• Good Party: 6.5%

• Victory Party: 3.4%

• YRP: 2.8%

• YMP: 2.1%

• TİP: 1.8%

• Other: 3.6%

According to ORC, the 1.3-point gap between AKP and CHP signals a highly competitive race. While smaller parties show limited movement, shifts among those below the electoral threshold continue to influence the broader electoral landscape.

The survey suggests voter preferences remain fluid as Turkey moves deeper into the pre-election period.

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