ANALYSIS:  Turkish Unemployment Nudges Down to 8.5% in October, But Broad Rate Hits 29.6%

ISTANBUL, November 29, 2025 — Turkey’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate saw a slight decrease in October 2025, falling from 8.6% to 8.5%. The total number of employed persons increased by 185,000, reaching 32 million 772 thousand people.

However, a deeper look at the data reveals underlying weakness in the labor market, with the most comprehensive measure of joblessness surging close to 30%, and growth in full-time employment stalling.

Headline Figures: Employment Rises, but Labor Force Participation Stalls

In October, the key headline labor market indicators showed moderate improvement:

• Unemployment Rate: Declined to 8.5%.

• Employment Increase: 185,000 people were added to the workforce.

• Unemployed Persons: Decreased by 27,000 people, totaling 3 million 33 thousand.

• Labor Force Participation: Saw a modest rise of 157 basis points, hitting 35.04%.

⚠️ Broad Unemployment Indicators Signal Deepening Weakness

The overall picture is significantly clouded by the indicators tracking latent and hidden unemployment, reflecting underutilized labor capacity:

• Time-Related Underemployment: The percentage of people working fewer hours than desired rose sharply to 17.9%.

• Broad Total Unemployment Rate: This key comprehensive measure, which includes the unemployed, potential labor force, and time-related underemployment, climbed from 28.5% to 29.6%. This rise indicates that nearly one-third of the working-age population is either unemployed, underemployed, or discouraged.

Gender and Full-Time Employment Trends

The monthly increase in employment was driven almost entirely by one demographic, while the growth in stable, full-time jobs paused:

• Gender Discrepancy: The rise in employment (192,000 people) was overwhelmingly accounted for by women, though the women’s unemployment rate also rose slightly from 11.1% to 11.3%. Male employment saw a minor drop of 9,000, while the men’s unemployment rate fell to 7.0%.

• Full-Time Employment Halt: The index tracking full-time employment, which had seen three months of growth, stalled in October. This pause suggests a weakening in the quality and security of jobs being created in the current climate.

💬 Economic Context: TCMB Tightening Raises Future Risks

The weak showing in the broad unemployment figures and the halt in full-time employment growth are viewed as critical signals regarding the health of the labor market.

The analysis concludes that with the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) continuing its tight monetary policy to combat inflation, the slowdown in economic activity observed is likely to intensify. Consequently, risks concerning a further negative impact on employment are expected to persist in the coming months.

Source TSKB