BETAM Think Tank: Turkey’s Economy Expected to Grow 5.3% in Q3 2025

Preliminary indicators suggest that Turkey’s economy expanded by 5.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, while seasonally and calendar-adjusted data point to a 1.1% increase compared with the previous quarter.

Consumption: Mixed Signals

Consumption dynamics remain uneven. Consumer loans rose by 2.6% in Q3, while special consumption tax (SCT) revenues increased by 2.3%. On the other hand, industrial production indices for both non-durable and durable goods showed declines of 4.0% and 2.7% respectively.

Year-on-year, imports of consumer goods surged by 20%, underscoring robust demand, while non-durable and durable industrial production indices fell by 2.4% and 5.4%.

Investments: Rising Imports, Declining Utilization

Public investment spending rose sharply by 14.1% on a quarterly basis, while commercial loans increased by 4.8%. Retail inventories, however, contracted by 0.6%.

On an annual basis, imports of investment goods jumped 20.7% and consumer loans grew 18%. In contrast, capacity utilization in investment goods declined by 3.6% and retail inventories fell 1.1%.

Foreign Trade: Export Growth, Import Slowdown

Adjusted foreign trade figures show exports rising 3.7% in Q3, while imports dropped 6.6%. Compared with last year, exports were up 7.5%, while non-gold exports rose 3.8%. Imports surged by 12.8% overall and by 14.9% when excluding gold.

Energy and Industry Indicators

Electricity consumption rose 1.9% quarter-on-quarter, while overall capacity utilization fell 0.6%. On a yearly basis, investment expectations dropped 3.5%, but the manufacturing production index climbed 7.4%.

Broader Outlook

The finalized July data and partial August indicators suggest Turkey’s economy maintained strong momentum in the third quarter of 2025, posting both annual and quarterly growth. Still, the divergence between rising imports and weaker industrial output signals ongoing imbalances in the recovery.