Türkiye’s Year-End Inflation Expectation Falls Below 30%, Survey Shows

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) released its June Market Participants Survey, showing a downward revision in the country’s year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation, which fell from 30.35% to 29.86%.

The outlook for 12-month CPI declined to 24.56%, down from 25.06% in the previous survey. Expectations for 24 months ahead also edged lower, from 17.77% to 17.35%.

Probabilistic Forecasts Indicate Moderate Inflation Expectations

According to the survey:

• There is a 47.37% probability that 12-month CPI will range between 23.00%–25.99%.

• A 21.40% chance is assigned to the 20.00%–22.99% band.

• A 20.91% likelihood sees inflation between 26.00%–28.99%.

Point forecasts from participants show:

• 47.62% expect inflation between 23.00%–25.99%.

• 26.98% see it in the 26.00%–28.99% range.

• 14.29% forecast it between 20.00%–22.99%.

Policy Rate and Currency Expectations

Participants’ average forecast for the CBRT policy rate at the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting remains 46.00%, in line with the current level. Meanwhile, the expected overnight interest rate in the BIST repo-reverse repo market dropped from 49.00% to 46.21%.

Exchange Rate Forecasts

The year-end USD/TRY exchange rate expectation dipped slightly from ₺43.70 to ₺43.57, while the 12-month forecast rose to ₺47.04, up from ₺46.62 in the previous survey.

Conclusion

The CBRT’s latest market survey highlights a cautious decline in inflation expectations, along with relatively stable projections for interest rates and exchange rates. These indicators will be closely watched as Türkiye navigates monetary tightening and inflation management strategies in the second half of 2025.