OPINION:  Turkish Economy Won’t Survive The Winter

The latest CPI print came out at 80%, with the consensus expecting even higher figures in the months to come.

• In July monthly trade deficit soared to $10 bn.

• A buoyant tourism season and domestic spending is keeping the economy together, but odds have it that Turkey won’t survive the winter for five reasons.

• First, the external deficit is becoming impossible to finance.

• Second, the global backdrop is turning severely against fragile EM like Turkey.

• Third, inflation is out of control, predicted to breach three digits in early 2023.

• Forth, there is monster Covid-19 wave, which the government refuses to deal with.

• Finally, lower growth and Covid-19 related work stoppages will raise unemployment by 5 pcp.

• Turkey will most likely impose capital controls, suffer from deepening poverty resulting in mass social unrest as well as a rebellion against the Erdogan administration.

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