Video commentary: Turkey’s housing collapse is resembling China

Turkey’s housing collapse is resembling China

This video advances a very bold proposal: Turkish housing market is beginning to collapse irreversibly; and factors behind it are increasingly resembling those of China. The exposition consists of four sections and a bonus.

The state of play in the Chinese housing-cum-property development industry: Why it will get worse, adding to weak consumption, bad loans in banks and the global concern about China’s rapidly expanding export capacity.

The resemblances between Chinese crisis and the onset of Turkey’s housing collapse: Let’s start with the erroneous conviction that eventually triggered every financial crisis in history: The price of something will go up forever, and move on to other subtle aspects which bear resemblance.

The evidence that Turkey’s housing collapse has started: In April real prices declined first time in over five years.
Why is this process irreversible? It will take at least three years to find a bottom.

Now, the unique and peculiar aspect of Tukey’s real estate woes: The urgency of urban renewal, or earthquake proofing physical structures across the nation.

The bonus: Demographics of China and Turkey which may render house price deflation permanent.


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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.