Turkey is becoming more dependent on Russia every year as agriculture follows energy imports. Especially in the strategic product wheat, 85 percent of Turkey’s imports are from Russia and Ukraine. If there is a war, the price of bread could break the record in Turkey.
Turkey will be one of the countries most affected by a possible conflict as the Ukraine crisis between Russia and the Western world escalates. Turkey, which is dependent on Russia for energy imports, is becoming more and more dependent on Russia for agricultural products every year. In 2021, Turkey surpassed even China to become the country that imported the most agricultural products from Russia.
Wheat, which is defined as a “strategic product” in imports from Russia, stands out, while dependence is increasing in basic food products such as barley, soy, sunflower and corn. According to experts, Turkey’s wrong agricultural policies will increase Russia’s power over Turkey in agriculture after energy. If a war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of bread and flour in Turkey are expected to break records.
Agricultural exports surpass arms exports
Trade relations between Russia and Turkey have improved so far, especially through energy dependence. Turkey imports about 40 percent of its natural gas and 25 percent of its oil needs from Russia. In addition, Turkey’s first nuclear power plant under construction in Mersin Akkuyu will operate under Russian control. In recent years, however, there is another strategic area where Turkey has become increasingly dependent on Russia: agricultural products.
Turkey’s agricultural product imports have been generating more revenue to Russia than arms sales in the last 5 years. In 2021, 13 percent of agricultural products exports of Russia amounting to $36 billion were made to European Union countries, while Turkey alone received 12 percent of the exports. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture aims to exceed $5 billion in sales of agricultural products from Russia to Turkey by 2030.
Production falls, imports increase
Turkey has been losing blood in agricultural production in recent years. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT), there were significant production declines in cereals and legumes, which are basic foodstuffs, in 2021. Production loss of rye, barley and red lentils exceeded 30 percent compared to the previous year. In wheat, the main ingredient of flour and bread, the loss of production reached 14 percent.
Production losses in agriculture have led to an increase in imports in this area over the past 5 years. Grain imports consisting of flour-making products such as wheat, barley, millet, rye, corn amounted to $1.4 billion in 2016, while grain imports exceeded $4 billion in 2021.
Russia is the country that stands out for Turkey in the aera of agricultural product imports. While Russia’s agricultural products exports exceeded $36 billion in 2021, Turkey surpassed even China and became the largest importer from Russia in 2021. Turkey’s total imports of agricultural products from Russia in 2021 reached $4.4 billion. Its exports to Russia remained at $1.5 billion.
“If war breaks out, it will be difficult to access basic food”
According to agriculture writer Ali Akbar Yildirim, the debate from Russian imports has featured energy and defence-heavy topics such as the S-400s, but in recent years, yet increasing imports of agricultural products from Russia have been overlooked. “Turkey really has a dependence on the Russian market in agriculture right now. Especially for cereal product especially for wheat, barley, soy, sunflower and partly of corn. In fact, Turkey even buys a product such as chickpeas from Russia, which it supplies to United Nations’ aid agencies.”
Yildirim pointed out that Turkey imported 70 percent of the wheat it obtained from abroad in 2021 from Russia and about 15 percent of it from Ukraine. He adds that it would be possible to supply these products from other countries in the short term, but this time the prices would increase a lot.
The increase in wheat imports, which is defined as the “most strategic product” in agriculture especially because it is used in flour and bread making, has reached a remarkable level. Wheat production of 22.6 million tons in 2016 declined to 19 million tons last year. Wheat imports increased from 4.1 million tons to 10.8 million tons during the same period. Thus, Turkey began to meet about half of its wheat needs through imports.
“The price of bread can go above 5 TL”
Murat Kapkiran, head of the Istanbul Branch of the Chamber of Agricultural Engineers, emphasizes that Russia has started to make Turkey dependent to itself, not only in cereal and cereal products, but also in bran and fertilizer. Reminding that many seeds, especially wheat, originated from Anatolian lands, Kapkiran said, “It is a political mistake that Anatolia has become an importer of a seed that is its homeland. It is a significant mistake of agricultural policies. By continuing this mistake, we became importers of wheat. In crisis situations where such dependency relationships may arise, if there is no planning, which apparently does not exist, it will create large production handicaps.”
According to Murat Kapkiran, a war between Russia and Ukraine could quickly push bread prices in Turkey to record levels. “In the event of a war, it is certain that the prices of bread and flour will rise much more. It is very easy, very possible to predict now that the price of bread may rise to levels that we cannot predict. I don’t think 5 liras will be enough.”
Turkish companies go to Russia for production
On the one hand, imports of agricultural products from Russia are increasing, while on the other hand, the number of domestic producers choosing Russia over Turkey for production is increasing. Producers in Turkey have started to build flour mills in Russia in recent years due to increased energy and labor costs and easy production opportunities. One of these companies preparing to build factories in Russia is Taban Gıda, which has the largest share in Turkey’s wheat supply market.
Taban Gıda, which supplies grains, feed groups and oilseeds, especially wheat, to nearly 20 countries around the world, plans to invest a total of $100 million in production, logistics and storage in Russia over the next 3 years.
“Some investors have already invested in flour mills in Russia. We also have similar plans. This is an activity that we will hear much more about in the coming period.”
Hacihaliloglu points out that Turkey has been one of the world’s leading countries in the export of flour, pasta and biscuits for many years. However, according to Hacihaliloglu, who noted that Turkey, the leader in flour exports in the world, is able produce its own flour thanks to wheat imports from Russia. If the Ukraine crisis escalates, Turkey, which is the world leader in flour exports today, may lose its export advantage hence import flour in the long term.
“For years, since 2004-2005, you have been number one country in the world in flour exports. However, soon, this power is likely to slip away from us.”
Source: Deutsche Welle English – Aram Ekin Duran