Turkish central bank nears the end of its tightening cycle yet the deposit yields slide

TL deposit interest rates, which exceeded 50 percent in the last month of the year due to both the policy rate increase, the exit strategy from the currency protected deposit scheme (KKM) and the balance sheet correction efforts of banks, started to decline with the new year. In some banks, interest rates on deposits with a maturity of up to 3 months fell below 40 percent.

Central Bank data revealed that in the last week of the year, TL deposit rates with a maturity of up to 3 months closed the year with an average of 52.5 percent in current terms.

While TL deposit rates with a maturity of up to 3 months, closed the year at 45-47 percent, they declined to 41 percent with the new year. In some private banks, this rate dropped to 36-37 percent and even below 40 percent.

In the last month of last year, although it varied from bank to bank in the banking sector according to the needs in the balance sheet structure, the standard TL deposit interest rate with a maturity of up to 3 months rose to 40.5-45 percent even below 50 thousand liras and 48-53 percent as the deposit volume grew. In the last week of the year, all banks offered higher yields for TL deposits. The standard TL deposit interest rate, which reached even higher levels with campaigns such as “welcome to new customers”, closed the year at 52.5 percent for maturities up to 3 months.

There was a decrease of at least 4 points

Last week, Reuters, citing banking sector sources, reported that banks were facing margin squeeze due to shrinking loan demand and high deposit rates and that banks had started to cut deposit rates since the beginning of the year. After the first week of the year, standard TL deposit rates with maturities up to 3 months were cut by at least 4 points as of yesterday.

In the week of December 25, the interest rate offered by banks for TL deposits up to 100 thousand liras with a maturity of up to 3 months was 45-50.5 percent. Depending on the volume of deposits, this rate was 46-51 percent up to 500 thousand liras, 46.5-52 percent up to 1 million, and 47-53 percent up to 10 million. By the week of January 8, interest rates on the same deposits dropped by 4 percentage points. This decline occurred in both public and private banks. Interest rates on deposits up to 100 thousand liras with a maturity of up to 3 months decreased to 36.5-41 percent, up to 500 thousand liras to 39- 42 percent, up to 1 million liras to 42-43.5 percent and up to 10 million liras to 44 percent.

In his speech, İşbank General Manager Hakan Aran stated that banks give interest rates according to future inflation and that the deposit interest rates they give for the next three months are above inflation, emphasizing that customers’ loan appetite is low. The Central Bank is also trying to withdraw the excess liquidity in the market with the auctions started after the last MPC meeting.