Turkey has moved a step closer to approving Sweden’s long-anticipated NATO accession, as a crucial parliamentary committee endorsed the bid. This endorsement from the Foreign Affairs Committee clears a significant hurdle for Sweden, with a full assembly vote in Ankara expected to follow soon, possibly within the week. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has signaled his support, and the ruling AK party, along with its allies, holds a comfortable majority in the chamber.
Sweden’s inclusion in NATO is seen as a strengthening move for the alliance, particularly in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Pressure from US President Joe Biden and European leaders has been evident, urging Erdogan to support Sweden’s entry. Turkey, alongside Hungary, has been the last holdout within the bloc.
The Turkish committee’s decision is aligned with recent discussions between Biden and Erdogan, where Sweden’s NATO accession was a topic. The White House has made it a prerequisite for the sale of 40 new F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, a deal that Erdogan has linked to the NATO approval.
The geopolitical landscape in Europe has been influenced by Russia’s actions in Ukraine, prompting Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership. Finland joined in April, and Sweden’s approval has become crucial for NATO’s expansion. All NATO members must agree for new countries to join.
Turkey’s reservations center on Sweden taking further action against supporters of outlawed separatist groups in Turkey, particularly the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK is designated as a terrorist organization by the EU. Sweden’s laws on freedom of speech, however, have posed challenges in curbing public expressions of support for Kurdish independence. Despite these challenges, Sweden has provided assurances to Turkey regarding its commitment to addressing what Ankara considers acts of terrorism.
Hungary’s approval for Sweden’s NATO membership is also pending, though indications suggest it is likely to be granted.
Will it pass the parliament?
Commission head Fuat Oktay played down expectations for a speedy vote in the general assembly, telling reporters in parliament that the parliament speaker would decide on a timing for the vote.
“The decision to submit it to the general assembly has been made now, but this should not be interpreted as (a sign) that it will pass the general assembly with the same speed. There is no such thing,” Oktay said. Parliament is set for a two-week recess in early January.
Erdogan’s AK Party, its nationalist MHP allies, and the main opposition CHP voted in favor of ratification, while the small Islamist Felicity party and right nationalist Iyi party voted against it.
Noting that the steps and commitments taken by the Swedish authorities so far are satisfactory, Oktay said, "Finally, it is a positive development that the terrorist organization called 'Kurdish Red Crescent' has stopped its activities in Sweden because its financial resources have been blocked - which is a positive development since our previous meeting." On the other hand, it seems that the contacts in Ankara of the prosecutor appointed by Sweden to cooperate with our authorities were also positive and useful.