The Central Bank’s study, known as the Expectations Survey for June but whose name was changed to the Market Participants Survey because it led to misconceptions, continued to reflect deterioration in inflation and currency forecasts for the end of 2021.
The current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation increased significantly to 14.46% during this survey period from 13.81% in the previous survey period. CPI expectations for 12 months increased to 12.12% during this survey period from 11.81% in the previous survey period. CPI expectations for24 months increased from 9.99% to 10.16%.
These figures suggest that the central bank has failed to manage expectations towards its inflation target (5%) and forecast for 2021 (12.2%).
Dollar/TL expectation at 8.95
The current year-end exchange rate (USD/TL) expectation reached TL 8.95 from TL 8.71. The exchange rate expectation for 12 months was TL 8.95 in the previous survey period and TL 9.23 during this survey period.
The year-end current account deficit expectation increased to $25.7 billion from $25.4 billion in the previous survey period. There’s not much change. The current account deficit expectation for next year is $22.4 billion.
Growth expectations rise to 4.9%
GDP growth forecast for 2021 increased from 4.3% to 4.9%. GDP growth expectations for 2022 decreased to 4.0% during this survey period from 4.1% in the previous survey period.