Survey from Konda will upset AKP candidate Murat Kurum

KONDA announced the results of the latest public opinion survey regarding the Istanbul local elections to be held on March 31, sent by the research organization to the subscribers of the “KONDA Barometer Political and Social Research Series”.  KONDA was  once considered the most accurate of Turkish  pollsters, a reputation tarnished  in 2023 May elections, when like most its surveys claimed opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu would win.  In an opinion piece for Turkish weekly Oksijen, former KONDA chair Bekir Agirdir, who is still consulting the company, stated Imamoglu was 2 points ahead of Murat Kurum, after the latter managed to pull even by mid-February.


In the survey where 2 thousand 489 people were interviewed face to face in 135 neighborhoods on March 2-3, 2024, Turkstat’s population sample data base was used.


The results of the survey, in which the participants were asked who they would vote for in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, are as follows:

The percentage of those who say they would prefer Ekrem İmamoğlu is 38.2.

Those who will choose Murat Kurum are 32.2 percent.

While 6 percent of those surveyed remained undecided, 12.5 percent of the votes were for other candidates.



The picture that emerged after the undecided voters were distributed is as follows:


Those who will vote for CHP candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu are 46.1 percent.


Those who say they will vote for Murat Kurum are 38.8 percent.


When asked to mark their voting preferences:


Ekrem İmamoğlu 46 percent,

Murat Kurum is 38.9 percent.


Poll-of-polls reveal a dead heat


According to opposition daily Cumhuriyet, a social media account, MDraporlar posted the average of 10 lates polls for Istanbul, namely    those by ASAL, DİEN, HBS, MetroPOLL, Optimar, ORC, Özdemir, PİAR, SONAR and  TÜSİAR.


The result suggest a dead heat, with Imamoglu leading Kurum by only 0.6 margin.


A Reuters analysis translated into Turkish cited experts who put Imamoglu only 2 points ahead, with the comment that the difference was not a source of comfort for the incumbent.

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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.