KONDA announced the results of the latest public opinion survey regarding the Istanbul local elections to be held on March 31, sent by the research organization to the subscribers of the “KONDA Barometer Political and Social Research Series”. KONDA was once considered the most accurate of Turkish pollsters, a reputation tarnished in 2023 May elections, when like most its surveys claimed opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu would win. In an opinion piece for Turkish weekly Oksijen, former KONDA chair Bekir Agirdir, who is still consulting the company, stated Imamoglu was 2 points ahead of Murat Kurum, after the latter managed to pull even by mid-February.
In the survey where 2 thousand 489 people were interviewed face to face in 135 neighborhoods on March 2-3, 2024, Turkstat’s population sample data base was used.
REMARKABLE RESULTS
The results of the survey, in which the participants were asked who they would vote for in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, are as follows:
The percentage of those who say they would prefer Ekrem İmamoğlu is 38.2.
Those who will choose Murat Kurum are 32.2 percent.
While 6 percent of those surveyed remained undecided, 12.5 percent of the votes were for other candidates.
AFTER THE UNDECISIONS ARE DISTRIBUTED…
The picture that emerged after the undecided voters were distributed is as follows:
Those who will vote for CHP candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu are 46.1 percent.
Those who say they will vote for Murat Kurum are 38.8 percent.
When asked to mark their voting preferences:
Ekrem İmamoğlu 46 percent,
Murat Kurum is 38.9 percent.
Poll-of-polls reveal a dead heat
According to opposition daily Cumhuriyet, a social media account, MDraporlar posted the average of 10 lates polls for Istanbul, namely those by ASAL, DİEN, HBS, MetroPOLL, Optimar, ORC, Özdemir, PİAR, SONAR and TÜSİAR.
The result suggest a dead heat, with Imamoglu leading Kurum by only 0.6 margin.
A Reuters analysis translated into Turkish cited experts who put Imamoglu only 2 points ahead, with the comment that the difference was not a source of comfort for the incumbent.
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