Sochi: No New Grain Deal For Now

Talks this week between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on reviving the deal on exports of Ukrainian grain have failed, though Erdogan claims a compromise is near. The West must first lift its sanctions on Russian agricultural exports, Putin said after the meeting in Sochi.


Negotiations remain the priority

On his Facebook page, Iliya Kusa of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future sees three options for resolving the issue of grain exports via Ukrainian Black Sea ports:


“1) Sustained pressure on Russia. … 2) Agreement on a compromise. But this requires concessions from all sides. 3) The creation of alternative corridors without Russia’s participation.


Here, however, the problem lies in security guarantees for such corridors – and who will provide them. Ukraine does not currently have such resources, and Turkey is not ready to take on such a responsibility. … Judging from the meeting in Sochi, it looks like the second scenario – negotiations with a potential compromise – remains the priority.”



No trade-off on the grain deal!


Erdoğan and Putin can’t push through a deal against Ukraine’s interests, economist Timothy Ash notes in a post picked up by Ukraine’s NV:

“It was interesting to see Erdoğan replaying Putin’s narrative after the Sochi meeting about how Russia must be given access to Swift and ship insurance again before the Black Sea grain trade can resume. But this will not happen, because Ukraine will see this as blackmail (which is exactly what it is). … Ukraine will not allow an agreement on a grain deal if it is linked to an easing of sanctions.”

Ankara’s maneuvering will continue


Reality has caught up with our over-optimism, Latvia’s Diena comments:

“It was already clear that Moscow had become noticeably more reserved towards Ankara, which is why the West, and especially the US, hoped that Turkey would also become more reserved towards Russia. However, Russia is too important for this country, whose economy is not in great shape, for Erdoğan to take such a step. Accordingly, Turkey’s geopolitical maneuvering, which works in Russia’s favor, will continue.”


Turkey has its own agenda here

Latvia’s Neatkarīgā takes a closer look at the question of Russian gas exports via Turkey, which was discussed during the meeting between Erdogan and Putin:

“Turkey also wants to earn something on the resale of Russian gas: tens of billions of cubic meters of gas are to be re-exported to other recipients in Europe. During a recent visit to Budapest, the Turkish president proposed this solution to Hungary. It is already known that the gas will be delivered to Serbia via the pipeline. Naturally one can say: isn’t it a stain on your honor to buy gas from an aggressor country? The reply will be another question: how can one determine whether the gas flowing to Europe comes from Nigeria, Qatar or Russia?”


The wrong negotiating partner


Erdoğan was hoping for a success that was out of his reach, Italy’s La Repubblica comments:

“The fact that he didn’t succeed did not come as a surprise to the Russian press and commentators, who all stressed that he couldn’t be the one to give Putin what he wants. Moscow insists that the United Nations must honor the agreement to facilitate the export of agricultural products and fertilizers, restore access to the Swift payment system for the Russian Agricultural Bank Rosselkhozbank, and allow the resumption of ammonia deliveries via the Togliatti-Odessa pipeline, which was blown up in recent months. However, most of these demands can only be met by Western countries.”



No prospect of peace


Turkey’s Hürriyet columnist Abdulkadir Selvi is disappointed: The grain corridor was the main focus. … President Erdoğan spoke clearly about it. … He didn’t say whether he was successful or not, but that finding a solution would take time. At the press conference Erdoğan was asked: ‘Have you come with a proposal for a ceasefire?’ … Putin replied first, and thanked Erdoğan for his mediation efforts. But there were no strong statements that gave the green light for a short-term ceasefire or talks with Ukraine. After watching Putin, my hopes for a ceasefire or peace in the near future faded. This war will go on for a long time.”


Excerpt, source link here

PA Turkey received news that Moscow reached “fundamental agreements” with Turkey on the grain supplies with the assistance of Qatar, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko announced on Wednesday.

“All fundamental agreements have been reached. We expect that in the near future we will enter into working contacts with all parties to work out all the technical aspects of the scheme for such deliveries,” he told reporters in Moscow, as quoted by Interfax news agency.

Potentially, such a deal if true could complicate Turkey’s relations with NATO and Ukraine, because they had made an offer to have Ukraine grain shipments to be escorted by Turkish navy, which was rejected.


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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.