ORC Research: Main opposition alliance 4 points ahead of AKP-MHP

According to the ORC Research company, its early-December survey shows the Nation Alliance (CHP-IYIP) is 4 points ahead of the People’s Alliance (the governing bloc consisting of AKP and nationalist MHP), while pro-Kurdish Rights  HDP and MHP are at the national qualification threshold of 7 percent. Adding smaller constituents of the six-party main opposition alliance (Table of  Six), it enjoys a commanding lead of ca 9 points over the governing bloc.



According to the ORC Research company, the Nation Alliance is 4 points ahead of the People’s Alliance, while the HDP and MHP are at the threshold of 7 percent.

ORC Research company conducted  face-to-face interviews with 3,670 people in 42 provinces on 3-6 December 2022. The survey company asked the participants, “Which party would you vote for if there was an election this Sunday?” According to the results of the survey, the support rates of the parties are as follows:


AKP: 30.8 percent

CHP: 24.0 percent

IYI Party: 17.1 percent

HDP: 7.3 percent

MHP: 7.0 percent

Future Party: 2.8 percent  (part of Table of Six)

Deva Party: 2.3 percent (Part of Table of Six)

Turkey Change Party: 2.1 percent

Welfare Party: 1.6 percent (Part of Table of Six)

Victory Party: 1.5 percent (anti-immigrant)

Independent Turkey Party: 1.3 percent (Islamist-moderate)

Homeland Party: 1.0 percent  (pro-AKP, left-wing)

Other: 1.2 percent


According to the results of the survey, the vote rate of the Nation Alliance, formed by the CHP and the IYI Party, was 41.1 percent.

The vote rate of the People’s Alliance, formed by the AK Party and MHP, is 37.8 percent.



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Averages of 15 polls taken in November and early December put AKP-MHP at around 40%, with Table of Six commanding 45%.  HDP-led left wing alliance   has 13% of the national vote.


These results demonstrate that the summer-fall surge of AKP-MHP  has petered off in November-December.

The Table of Six regained the lead, but has not managed to increase its share of the national vote.


Lates presidential polls show the presumptive candidate of Table of Six, Kemal Kilicdaroglu leading incumbent Erdogan in the second round of the presidential race, but Erdogan may be closing the distance according to some polls.


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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.