Metropoll/Özer Sencar: If İmamoğlu wins the local elections, he will most likely be elected President in 2028

Founder and Director of MetroPOLL Research, Özer Sencar, predicted that if Ekrem İmamoğlu, who was nominated again by the CHP in Istanbul, is elected as the Mayor of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality once again in the local elections in March, he will most likely be elected President in 2028.


‘Turkey Recap’ spoke to 21 experts for their predictions for 2024 in areas ranging from domestic politics to elections, from economy to world and foreign policy. Sencar, one of the 21 experts, said that he thinks that the most important result in the local elections will once again come from Istanbul and who wins will “determine the political scene in a way that will be effective for a quarter of a century.”


“If İmamoğlu wins, he will most likely win the presidential election in 2028 and emerge as the president of the next 20 years,” said Sencar, predicting that in the other scenario, Erdoğan will probably remain President until the end of his life and many political actors will withdraw from the political scene.


Sencar also stated that the pro-Kurdish DEM Party will play a key role in the elections planned to be held in March. Sencar said that if DEM runs a serious campaign with effective candidates, it could cause CHP to lose a significant number of municipalities.


Sencar said, “There is no significant change in AKP, CHP, MHP and DEM Party votes. “A significant decrease in the İYİ Party would not be a surprise,” he said.


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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.